Black Sunday for some Pros

Ed Teach Said It Correctly "The only way they can lose is short term variance (not taking enough bets)" Again, right from the "horses mouth". Statement is dead on. They have had this problem since the (lol) port security bill was passed. Not enough volume. Not sure on the "how" to get it back. But, if you are tuned in at all they are working on the tweaks to get it there. Some of the obvious has been posted on most forums.

[QUOTE=KimLee;7352]Sounds like you were a bookie. Using your average figures, suppose you made 548 bets per year with 6.5% EV and 1 unit standard deviation. Then your mean is 36 units and standard deviation is 23 units. You have a 6% chance of losing in any given year, and a 97% chance of having at least one losing year in 51. And this is optimistically assuming your bets were equally weighted. Some guys might grind matchplays all week and then blow it on sports each weekend. As long as they bet within their weekly profits, they will never lose. Other guys might win consistently at moderate stakes backgammon or poker. But then they could find themselves with a huge edge in a big game and bet it all. For example, a good online poker pro might plausibly win $250K and then blow it on WSOP tournaments. One "name" pro lost $1MM of backers' money in tournaments fees.[/QUOTE] Way over 2000 bets a year. Probably around 4000. Plus (how many times do I have to state it?) that is VS the WORST rogue lines we can find. Betting stale lines and/or against inflated spreads on steam games, we improve on our 54%+ vs Pinny by at least 2 %. Run those numbers.

Plus, before the internet, the lines were not so tight. Home dogs were golden for a long time. THAT IS OVER!

VS [QUOTE=Old School;7446]Way over 2000 bets a year. Probably around 4000. Plus (how many times do I have to state it?) that is VS the WORST rogue lines we can find. Betting stale lines and/or against inflated spreads on steam games, we improve on our 54%+ vs Pinny by at least 2 %. Run those numbers.[/QUOTE] In this case, VS = Versus? Thanks.

Yes (the word, not the station)

if you play ultra conservative throughout your career playing strictly through poor rogue numbers then you will drastically decrease the % chance of having a losing 365 day period. not quite 0 but just about. i agree that everyone's case is different. assuming old school has a rogue book that has been in operation for years dealing poor numbers, constantly paying every week...i guess i can understand a situation like that. its not as easy to get down on rogue prices as a high volume bettor. you can continue to play the 100,500,1000 limit stuff at high +ev but the higher end bets are gernerally less +ev than the lower end bets.

I think it is very possible for a bettor to have less than a 0.5% chance of losing in any 365-day period. And that is without being ultra conservative. Conservative, yes ... maybe with no closing positions greater than 5K, but that doesn't mean ultra conservative.

We make about 33% of our bets at lines close to Pinny (but even 1/2 point extra will result in 1/2% more in returns). Many of our our locals have gone bye bye. But there are always new ones. Only two of our locals have been in business for 30+ years, and give Pinny's or Cris' lines. I'm sure you can make thousands of bets in LV at lines better than Pinny.

Yes - but then the question is all about getting paid. Not a fan of locals here.

I've NEVER been stiffed by a local. I have been stiffed by a LV book.