[B]Michigan State +7.5[/B]
Lots of off-the-field distractions for both squads here. This is a bet that MSU's off-the-field issues have a much more positive on-the-field effect than Texas Tech's.
Sports are wrought with examples of underhanded teams rising up to the challenge, with backups stepping up big time in the face of an overly confident opponent. MSU is lucky to be in this bowl in the first place. Texas Tech had to be thinking to themselves--we're gonna play these chumps and they're going to be severely shorthanded? No doubt, even before the Leach hoopla, I'd question TTech's psyche coming into this one.
The last week's events have really shifted the focus for the Red Raiders in this one. MSU's suspensions happend about a month ago. Tech is dealing with its distraction days before its bowl game. While I understand this is a virtual home game for the Red Raiders, there undoubtedly will be resentment among Tech fans at how the administration has handled the Adam James saga. If I were a player on this Tech team, I'd feel like my entire support system was taken out from under me. The very credibility of the program is on serious life support right now. Tech has to go compete mired in uncertainty and apprehension, while the Spartans have been seething over the way they ended the season (42-14 loss to PSU at home) and how the suspensions have negatively altered the perception of their program. I fully expect a scrappy effort from the Spartans, and a lack of focus from Tech that will lead to devastating, game-changing turnovers.