Brady vs. Baltimore D

Brady vs. Baltimore D I pulled together some stats going back to '07 from the previous times NE played Balt. I'm trying to see how much Brady struggled vs the top notch Balt D over the last couple years. I went back to 07 because I think that is when Brady and NE started taking off as an offensive juggernaut. Brady's 08 numbers are screwed up because of the injury in the first game of 08 but the numbers to compare are broken down on a per game basis. NE has played Balt 4 times since 2007 including once in the playoffs in NE in 2010 ([url]https://www.footballdb.com/teamvsteam.html?tm=3&opp=19[/url]) So here is what I found: Brady's career numbers since the start of 2007 season on a per game basis and vs Balt D: Brady's Career per game AVG--- Brady vs Balt D Comp-- 23-- 22 Attempts-- 35-- 39 YDS-- 283-- 240 Comp %- 67%-- 57% TDs- 2.4-- 1.5 INT- 0.57-- 1.5 Sacks- 1.45-- 3 QB Rating- 102.78-- 73.83 ( I can post the actual data to support these numbers from excel if anyone is interested. The data from excel/word does not format well into the message at all). So his struggles are very real. You can see one less TD per game and one more INT per game. He is sacked 1.5 more times vs Balt than his avg. and his completion % is 10% lower. I think Brady vs Balt D is the key match up in the game Sunday. Granted, this is a small sample size but Brady has completed over 25 passes only once in 4 games, hasn't broken 300 yds vs Balt, and has never thrown for 3 TDs in a game vs. Balt. Over 2 sacks and under 315 passing yds look like solid bets if you believe the past has any bearing on this game.

The playoff game he didn't have Welker, although his two TD passes were to his replacement (Edelman). Julian had a good game that day, in that when he was targeted he didn't screw up but perhaps Brady looked his way less often. (I know this game well because I have the same last name as Julian Edelman and was happy for his individual success. No, we're not related.) I also feel that Baltimore's defense was "loud" vs. Houston, meaning the turnovers created were high-profile (drive-killing INTs in the second half). This can make their perceived value to be higher than it should be. Of course Baltimore's defense is good, but perhaps the expectations are higher than they should be, thus resulting in props having numbers that take the value out of them.

also came across this stat: The Ravens have never allowed 300 or more yards in a playoff game. Surprisingly, Tom Brady has only throw for 300 yards in 3 of his 20 playoff starts Source: [url]https://www.businessinsider.com/ravens-patriots-facts-2012-1?op=1[/url]

And 1 of the 3 was the tuck rule game....hard to believe

Not positive on this and maybe a look at the stats could help but it seems that Brady has a lot less help from the running game than he did in the past and thus may have to throw more.

The team generally doesn't have a good running game. That's why they do goofy things like putting Aaron Hernandez at running back. They have had three 1,000-yard rushers in the Belichick era, including Green-Ellis last year.

Well Brady struggled against Balt just like he has in the past. Unfortunately, Balt didn't get over 2 sacks. Hope some people cashed under 315 passing yds. On the other Brady props he went under on almost all of them. The completions, attempts, yds, and INTs were just like the previous games vs Balt D and way below his career avg since 2007. Brady today had: 22 completions 36 attempts 239 yds 61 % completion 0 passing TDs (1 rushing TDs) 2 INTS 1 sacks 57.5 QB rating

I thought I would repost this thread. I did some research last year for the AFC championship game that showed Brady really struggles against Baltimore. Going under on several of his props paid off last year. Last year the over/under on Brady's passing yards was 315. This year Bovada has the over/under at 305.5. The 305.5 is near his career avg but nowhere near his Avg vs Balt. New England's running game is stronger this year 4.17 YPA vs 4.03 last year. Baltimore rushing D is worse this year giving up 3.99 YPA vs 3.53 last year. I expect NE to keep rushing Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead which would hurt Brady's passing #s. In the game Balt and New England played this year Brady went: [U][B] C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT[/B][/U] T. Brady 28/41 335 8.2 1 0 Welker had one 59 yd completion in this game. I'm going to bet Brady under 2.5 TD passes, under 305 passing yds, Over 0.5 INTs and see if his struggles continue.

The much heralded matthew stafford leading the lions to 10 wins next year ? good luck with that one . even with the schedule .[QUOTE=joelshitshow;50250]The team generally doesn't have a good running game. That's why they do goofy things like putting Aaron Hernandez at running back. They have had three 1,000-yard rushers in the Belichick era, including Green-Ellis last year.[/QUOTE]

Well two out of three isn't bad. Too bad garbage time took Brady's passing yards over the total.