Breakdown of Mizzou vs. Nebraska Here is a breakdown of tonights game from Powermizzou.com for those who are interested. The keys to the game as i see it are if Mizzou can stop the Huskers running game and if Nebraska can get pressure on Gabbert with their front four. I know it is a homer pick but I like the points in this game. The Zou will be absolutely crazy tonight and the Husker's have not won in Columbia since 2001.
When Missouri runs the ball: It's been talked about over and over and over. Missouri has struggled to run the ball well. You don't need to look at the numbers. Stats can lie, but your eyes don't. And your eyes tell you the ground game hasn't been great. Gary Pinkel said this week the Tigers had installed some new blocking schemes and they're taking longer to click than expected. Whatever the reason, Derrick Washington and the Tiger backs need to get going. Especially if the claims that Nebraska will play one linebacker and six defensive backs are true. If that's the case, it's up to the Missouri ground game to win this.
From the Nebraska perspective, the Husker front four and defense in general is much improved. And overall, the numbers against the ground games are good. The Huskers are giving up 115.75 yards on the ground (39th in the country) and 3.15 yards per carry. However, in each of Nebraska's first three games, the opposing team's top runner had at least 83 yards and averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry. The run defense is good; it is not impenetrable.
Edge: NEBRASKA
When Missouri throws the ball: The start by Blaine Gabbert has gotten plenty of attention and deservedly so. The sophomore has thrown for 1,161 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception. He leads the Big 12 in passer rating and is fourth in the nation. Gabbert has been even better when it really counts. In the second half of games (despite not playing the entire time against Illinois or Furman), Gabbert is 33-for-43 for 547 yards and six touchdowns. The second half passer rating of 229.64 is the best in America.
Perry has scored a touchdown in every game.
Gabbert has certainly had help as both Danario Alexander and Jared Perry rank among the nation's top 30 in both receptions and yards. Alexander has had a hand in five touchdowns the last two weeks and Perry has scored in every game this season. Wes Kemp is one of the most productive third receivers around and ranks second in the Big 12 in yards per catch.
The Nebraska pass defense rates 23rd in the country, giving up just 169.75 yards per game. At the same time, the Huskers have faced only one team that has a passing offense that is ranked better than 74th in the NCAA. Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th) threw for 236 yard against the Huskers in the season opener.
This game could well come down to the deep ball. Missouri leads the nation in pass plays of more than 30 yards. The Huskers have given up at least one pass of 30 or longer in every game. Are some of the plays downfield that Gabbert has made in the first four games plays he won't be able to make against Big 12 defenses? And will the weather prevent either team from throwing downfield much?
Edge: MISSOURI
When Nebraska runs the ball: Roy Helu is one of the best backs in the country and one of the two best Missouri will see all season. Helu leads the Big 12 in rushing at 116 yards per game and his five rushing touchdowns are second in the conference. Helu averages 6.4 yards per carry, the best mark among the Big 12's top dozen rushers. Helu has alternated good games with great ones. Game by game, he has run for 152, 60, 169 (at Virginia Tech) and 83 yards.
Will Helu be at full strength for the game?
Missouri's run defense has been middle of the road. The Tigers have allowed 133.75 yards per game, which ranks them 61st in the country. They are giving up 3.7 yards per carry, which is right in the middle of the pack in the league. However, the Tigers have not allowed a run of more than 20 yards, the only team in the Big 12 that can make that claim. Most teams who have hurt the Tigers on the ground have done so attacking the edges, particularly on the zone read and the option. Zac Lee can run the ball (he had 38 yards on the ground against the Hokies) and that could be a factor here.
The biggest wild card in all of this has nothing to do with the on-field matchups. Rumors are swirling that Helu has the flu. He was held out of practice on Wednesday, the Huskers' last before leaving for Columbia. Just how sick is Helu? And what kind of effect will the travel and the late start have on him? As much as anything, the answer to that question may hold the key to the outcome.
Edge: NEBRASKA
When Nebraska throws the ball: Nebraska ranks 33rd nationally at 256 passing yards per game. The question is, based on the schedule, what do those numbers mean? Against three Sun Belt teams, Lee was a combined 57-for-70 for 791 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. Against Virginia Tech, he was 11-for-30 for 136 yards and two picks. Which Lee will show up in Columbia? Arkansas State-against whom Lee was 27-for-35 for 340 yards and four scores-ranks 107th in the country in pass defense. None of the three Sun Belt teams are in the top 70. The Hokies, who held him down, are still just 48th.
Gilleylen averages more than 31 yards per catch.
Nebraska has seven receivers who have caught at least seven passes this year (and 17 who have caught at least one), but none of those has caught more than 11. Curenski Gilleylen leads the Big 12 in yards per catch, but is the only real deep threat on the team. Mike McNeill is one of the league's better tight ends and tailbacks Helu and Rex Burkhead have combined to catch 18 balls for 153 yards and a score.
On the Tiger side of things, Missouri's pass defense is 68th in the nation, giving up 218 yards per game. It's better than the three teams Lee lit up, but still in the bottom half of the country. The Tigers' three Division One opponents rank 13th, 78th and 91st in passing offense. The biggest improvement for Missouri has been the elimination of the big play. Last season, Mizzou gave up six passes of 25 yards or more in the opener alone. This season, they've given up just two such plays, including a 55-yarder on a halfback pass against Furman.
With Missouri expected to stack the line of scrimmage to slow Helu, this may be the most critical matchup in the game. If Lee and the Husker receivers can make plays, it should open things up for Helu in the running game. If they can't, Helu and the running game will have to find holes in a seven or eight-men in the box defense.
EDGE: PUSH
Special Teams: Prior to the season, this one would have gone to Nebraska in a heartbeat. And the Huskers have held up their end of the bargain. Alex Henery is one of the best in America as both a placekicker and a punter. Henery has made every field goal attempt under 50 yards this season and is averaging 42 yards per punt, including dropping half his kicks inside the opponent's 20. Kickoff man Adi Kunalic already has 16 touchbacks and opponents average starting at the 20-yard line. Nebraska also leads the league in kickoff coverage and ranks third in punt returns.
On the Missouri side, the kicking game was a huge question mark coming into the season. But Grant Ressel has made every kick and Jake Harry has the Tigers ranked second in America in net punting. Tanner Mills has seven touchbacks, but the Tigers' kickoff coverage hasn't been great (10th in the Big 12). Mizzou also hasn't gotten much out of the return games this season.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
Intangibles: No, past history doesn't matter much. Except for one thing: Missouri is no longer scared of Nebraska. The Tigers not only think they can win, but expect to win. They've done so three straight times over Nebraska in Columbia and four of six overall. This game is being played in prime time on Thursday night at home. Home teams are very good in this game. Missouri's last home loss against a North team was a 31-14 loss to Kansas in Brad Smith's junior season.
EDGE: MISSOURI
Final Analysis and Prediction: These teams are fairly even. The strength of each on offense (Nebraska's run game, Missouri's passing attack) seems to match up with the weakness of the other on defense. The strengths on defense (Nebraska's front four, Missouri's speed off the edge) also seem to mirror the opposition's weaknesses. One edge for the Huskers is that they've already played a road game against a good team in a tough environment. And Nebraska played well in that game. But it also lost. The key for Missouri is quite simple: Slow down Helu, force Nebraska to throw the ball and see if Lee and the receiving corps can win the game. For the Huskers, they'd like to eliminate big plays for the Missouri offense and force Gabbert to show he can go on 10 or 12-play drives to score and eat up some clock in doing so. Unlike the last few years, don't look for anyone to put up 40 in this game. It will likely be a more defensive battle, especially if the forecast holds and the teams have to ride to the game in boats. The deciding factor in this one, to me, is the home field and a rabid sellout crowd. I expect a close game throughout with nobody getting up more than ten points at any time. In the end, I see Derrick Washington having a better game than most expect and the Tiger defense making a stop late for a 28-23 Missouri win.
