Bucs/texans

Bucs/texans Very Bad spot for the Bucs....They are 26th vs the rush....28th vs the pass and give up 400yds per game on D...they are facing a Houston team that seems to be hitting on all cylinders....Houston's D is 4th vs the rush, and 2nd vs the pass I see Tampa having a hard time scoring vs this underrated D...Josh Freeman thumb is not completly heeled, there number one run stopper is out for the yr ( Mccoy ) and Tampa has no run game...Houston's D is 4th vs the rush, and 2nd vs the pass.. I see Foster having a 150yd game and wearing down this undersized D... Tampa has played a couple of good games at home but Houston is way too much... I think we will see -3 by gametime Just my 2 cents

Thanks. I'll guess if people make adjustments upward on the Texans and downward on the Bucs for recent performance the new power ratings for this game might be Texans -3. I do see -3-120 as the betting looks to be leaning Bucs right now. I think the betting is on the Bucs at +3.5 because the line is too high. That is just my opinion. In reviewing the games I read the Texans are just dominant defensively the last few games just like you say in the overall numbers but stifling the last few games but I'm not adjusting for opposition. The Browns are pretty weak and the Titans limited. I do think I would bet the Texans -2.5 but I think Texans -3 is a fair line. Bottom line I like the theory the Texans are too much and have turned the corner and they're better. As a bettor I'm worried they are not in a good spot on the road and Tampa is in a good bounce back spot. Despite the statistical advantages for the Texans I think the power rating for the game is 3.and I think that adjusts for McCoy but obviously not if Freeman is not at least 90%.

I agree Houston is too much pimpdaddy. Sorry I didn't see this thread before I posted a similar one just now. I should have just added to this one.

I'm going to play devil's advocate just to give an alternative opinion. I like the Texans myself the past few years and they've been a nice dog over the years in good spots. The Texans have won 6 and lost 3. They beat the Colts in that total mismatch in week 1 and the Colts are now 0-9; The played the Dolphins and the Dolphins are tougher than they look and they did cover which is a bonus and it was on the road but nevertheless the Dolphins have won one game. They beat Pittsburgh and it is their signature win of the year. And I recall they beat the Steelers and I understand they outplated them more than the TD they actually won by. Definitely a game which made a statement they are at least in the top 10 in the NFL. The next 3 wins are really all games that they should be winning if they want to still be considered in the top 10 in the league and they took care of business. At Tennessee which is a game the old Texans would probably lose they blew them out. Another good job by them. They took care of Jax. Another good job but theyr'e a 2 win team. And then of course the Browns. No doubt another blowout but it was the Browns and they have 3 wins and we all know too well they have had an easy schedule to even get 3 wins. They lost to the Raiders at home and to the Saints and Ravens on the road. Certainly no shame in at least 2 of these losses and the Raiders were playing well and with Al Davis passing away that weekend rose up and had a good game. The Texans have only one win against what I would call a good team but they get style points for the Tenn game and impressive wins against who they have played. The Bucs have actually defeated Atlanta and New Orleans this year. The others over Minn and Ind. But 2 good wins here IMO. Their losses are to New Orleans, Chicago (big turnaround here this loss doesn't look as bad now), San Francisco (no style points here for a 48-3 drubbing but only Dallas has beat them) and Detroit on opening weekend. I don't know enough to know the impact McCoy has. It is obviously critical and the rankings you mention offensively and defensively aren't good but they've seen some pretty good teams. NO twice is going to hurt your pass D most likely. I do theorize they're in a good bounce back spot here and Houston has been made the favourite on their impressive wins a 3-120 favourite. That is a lot for them and their history on the road against a team that I don't think is a bad team. I think if you adjust these stats for opposition these teams are closer. I really think Houston -7 is out of line here. The Texans will not have Johnson and Mario Williams is out. Heck, that is a big loss for the Texans. I'm not on TB or anything here but I do see an element of sharp bettors might be. I personally may even like the Texans in this game just to handicap it but I would need that -3-110 but I wouldn't feel I had an edge.

I'll just add one more comment if anyone loves the momentum of the Texans. I think the Texans have scored almost every time on their 1st drive of the game....at least 7 or 8 I think....I'm not precise here but they have had some fast starts. I think the Bucs are one of the worst. Problems starting games especially offensively and I think have been outscored early in games. Like I say if you like momentum and you like the Texans, you probably like the Texans in the first 6 minutes, first qtr, first half, etc.

Skeeter, I love your right ups and think you are an extremley knowlegeble bettor... I have been a die hard buc fan for 20+ yrs and I dont remember ever ( even back in the creamsickle days ) a run d-fense that has been this horrible,( as im typing this i hear we just signed haynesworth).... to me it plays right into Houston's strength, we are so weak up the middle that I can see the game now run foster left tackle run foster right tackle play action... Tampa has nothing to stop or answer and w mccoy being out I can see foster getting a buck and a half... the point u make which I completly agree with is that Houston has faced very little competition..

Thanks but what I don't have is any real knowledge. And if you know this situation that is what betting is all about. If this run D is that bad well I have to agree the Texans could blast these guys. I didn't think the Browns were that bad on D and the Texans put up 2 backs with 100+ so if the Bucs are worse your vision could be like the pre-cogs in that Tom Cruise movie.

Thanks for your response Skeeter. I wish there was more game discussions on these boards from all these knowledgeable bettors. Instead of just waiting for picks. I guess the question is, are these texans like the old soft texans or are we looking at a top NFL team? You point out that the old texans would have lost to Tenn, Jax or Cleve which I totally agree. I lost betting each one of those. You also make a great point that Houston's wins are over weak opponents. A case can be made for TB as a home dog but Houston's stats are very impressive and the things Houston does well on offense are what TB is bad at. I also see 80% of the bets are going Houston's way which makes Houston the square public side. I think the big difference this year is the wade phillips D which has held strong even with Mario Williams out. The D is giving up 5.7 Yds per pass attempt only Det and Pitt give up less YPA.

As I type this there is a move on Houston. I'll try to pick up a stray moneyline on the game on them. The Dr. Bob free review had his numerical models---yielding a much higher spread than the current spread at least 6.5 and I think one was 11.5. However, another handicapper I respect had the power rating as Houston -1. The Dr. didn't play the game because of situations on TB which he didn't reveal in detail and have done well for him so he's avoiding Houston despite the line value. I like the Texans but I feel I should be betting the Bucs if I get +4 reduced juice. But great job forecasting a short line a big player obviously agrees. Pretty big moves on the Jets, Steelers and Broncos this evening. Have to keep your eyes open on Friday nights some big players seem to play on Friday nights.

Skeeter, I just read in this mornings Tampa Trib that Raheem Morris is benching his weak linebacker hayes ( number 2 in tackles )and starting quincy black, I dont know if that good or bad when you have the 29th ranked D.... I also like what u said earlier about Tampa starting slow, it seems to be that way every game...Down by 2 touchdowns go into a 2 min offense and make the game close, it drives me nuts... I am not playing the first half but i did put a bundle on texans -3 110