Buff/KC total We played Buff/KC over 44.5.
I made the number 47.5 on this matchup.When I make my number, I adjust my raw total when comparing team's matchup strengths and weaknesses. Buffalo has a "D level" rush defense ( bottom quartile- allowing 175 y.p.g.)going against KC's "A-Level" rush offense ( they lead the league with 176.5 rushing yards per game).Conversely, KC has a "D-level" pass defense going against Buffalo's "A-level" pass offense ( with Fitzpatrick at QB).
I still rank Buffalo as having the worst defense in the NFL as they have allowed at least 34 points in 5 consecutive games. In addition, the replacement of Fitzpatrick over Edwards has changed the passing attack from a "dink and dump" philosophy to one of stretching the field.In fact, Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 2 TD passes in his last five starts.In his last game versus Baltimore, Fitzpatrick threw 24 passes to wide receivers.The Bills have played 4 consecutive OVERS with Fitzpatrick running the offense.
An interesting factor in this contest is that it features two of the hottest QB's in the NFL. Not many would realize that Cassel has the highest QB rating in the NFL over the last 4 games.The Chiefs have scored 73 points in their last two games.
What also impacted my decision to play the OVER is that both teams possess a running back that break a 50+ yard run ( Spiller for Buff and Charles for KC).
It looks like the weather forecast presents no problem for a higher scoring game. The long term forecast for KC on Sunday is temps in the mid 60's, partly sunny with winds up to 8 mph.
In my opinion, this total will close past the key number of 45.
Good luck,
charliej
