cards +420 or better for series pineiro -156 (@ 0 vig) is fair. carpenter almost certain to go in game 4, wainwright game 5.
playing this scenario out game by game is a median of ~ +400 (20 cents in either direction) using my expected lines in gm 4 and 5. i like their chances to pull it out still and will take the small perceived value on the series right now.