The case for the Bengals

The case for the Bengals Just too much negativity on the Bengals team. No doubt about it the situation just lines up that one can't wait to bet the Bengals under but I really think there is a lot to like about the Bengals. (1) Mike Zimmer DC. Might have to be considered one of the best in the game right now. The Bengals D for last 4 years I think has performed very well. (2) The personnel on D is top notch. I think 10 1st round draft picks on the D side of the ball. They lost Joseph to FA last year but they have brought in some veterans this year. -Bottom line is I think it is reasonable to assume they will be strong again defensively. LY the Bengals were hit hard to the under after a couple of performances in the pre season. They took a move to the under before that I'm guessing because Dalton was going to be the starter. Obviously, the market got this completely wrong as Dalton was better than Palmer probably would have been. (3) Dalton and AJ Green should be good. I buy the sophomore jinx but not sure I want to bet on it all the time. Maybe weak at some WR spots but a good TE. (4) Green-Ellis at RB. Maybe not great but he's decent. (5) I think their OL has some premier players. Smith was a 1st rounder and I think another pro bowler type in Whitworth. (6) I actually think it s a nice intangible that they haven't beaten Pittsburgh or Baltimore in awhile because they clearly are good enough to beat them. (7) I have no doubt Jay Gruden is probably a real talent at OC. I don't know how good he is but the Bengals coaching IMO is a plus. (8) Lewis has been underwhelming at times but actually when the Bengals were on the HBO series a few years ago I actually thought Lewis came across better than almost all of the guys I've seen on the show. I agreed with that Fez tweet somewhat that why are they extending him but he's probably got enough respect in the league to stay around. I think they can win 8 games. Under 8.5 sounds better but no way I want to pay for it with the juice I see now or earlier.

Regarding BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE generally keeps running backs that are good. I don't think his success will transfer well to the Bengals' system. I think the Bengals are going to be a boring, under team. The entire AFC North puts me to sleep.

I agree that the chance is there for a follow up season for Cincy. One of the cases where a slightly lucky previous season is met with improvement on personnel the folowing

Green-Ellis was, and still is, a solid but unspectacular RB. He does not catch a lot of balls and he will not be a 4.5 ypc back but he does keep the chains moving and the guy NEVER fumbles. Four seasons in the NFL and still no fumbles. The other thing he does is get the necessary first down yardage. In 410 carries the last two years he picked up 103 first downs. By comparison, Chris Johnson had about the same number of first downs (102) but took him 40% more carries (580). I think his signing is an indicator that the Bengals will be a more pass heavy offense than in years past and he is a good fit if that's the case. As a workhorse back, would have to agree that he's not ideal but as a 12-15 carry a game back I'd love to have a guy who gets me 3-4 yds when needed and never drops the ball.* BJGE won't play this week due to a foot injury so his streak of fumble-less games continues.

So far that Bengals D I expected to be good has been a disaster. More big plays allowed than anyone else, 2 400 yd + games allowed including one to Cleveland. Mauluga has been terrible. They lost Howard to injury. And the DL hasn't been good at all giving up a high yprp. Now they face Washington. Nothing to add here regarding picks. Noticed Fez in on the over in this game but no movement really. Dunlap will be back this week is my understanding which will help the DL. Zimmer also called them out from what I read. It does seem clear they won't be as good since they lost a few guys in the off season (one of the key DL I forget who being one--Fanene I think), Howard is out for the year and they had a few key pre season injuries to Mauluga and Dunlap. I still have been so impressed by Zimmer---and Lewis was the DC in Baltimore before coaching here (although they never had much of a D when he first started I recall)---I figured the Bengals would remain a top 10 D but top half might be the new goal. I hear the DL is getting gassed because not enough rotations like they had last year when they had more depth. Money so far on the Bengals in this game. The Redskins we know lost 2 of their best D players and statistically after NO and St. Louis I didn't look but they can't look great as it is. At the same time with a number so near 50 it does seem like a number set high already with knowledge of all of these factors. Bal has looked good throwing the ball. They got torched but it may happen to other teams as well. They were ahead vs. the Browns just too many big plays allowed there though. With Dunlap back, Zimmer calling them out and a chance to face RGIII we'll see if they come more motivated but last year's performance does seem like a stretch.

Have to shout out when you call something right so I will here. Bengals rallied to finish in top 10 in D vs. rush, pass and overall. The intangible vs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh was also a factor in getting this over as they beat these teams to close the season and get the over. I'll say though that overall Fez had some good stuff in the RSW department as he got me on Detroit under specifically and it was an easy no sweat winner. Seattle I already had bet but I think his price was decent enough. Bills were a solid play just didn't work out. Arizona turned out rather easy. I guess my point is that except for the Bengals and the 49ers costing so many units it would have been much better. He was positive even with these plays. In reviewing Fez i would say Cincy and SF were both plays too motivated by situations and not based on their rosters going into the season. The fact Seattle could be that good and the Rams prevent 2 wins and SF still won 11 just a bet that never really had a chance.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;55940] I'll say though that overall Fez had some good stuff in the RSW department. He was positive even with these plays. [/QUOTE] Skeeter always really enjoy your stuff but I would disagree.. According to Comptr Bob the final RSW tally was -2.85 units for RSW bets. Unless you are just talking NFL which I assume you aren't as you didnt mention it. You simply cant get drilled on your two 5 unit plays and call it good when we are tying money up all season.

Yes, I did mean only NFL RSW so should have mentioned that. I absolutely agree with your comments as it isn't a good season to tie up money and even be only up a few units in the NFL RSW department only. If these plays coud have magically disappeared the ledger looks a lot better. But the plays on the Bengals and 49ers were not completely endorsed by the betting markets I recall at the beginning of the season so I don't need magic for them to disappear since they were never there. What that means is that pro bettors not blindly betting Fez's material actually had a not bad year with Fez's own RSW betting. Fez's stuff was good enough that on some plays like Detroit, Seattle or Arizona there were just too good to pass up. Baltimore and Buffalo were probably also plays that were so good the pros had to have a piece of them. But Cincinnati and SF always were plays for a key reason you mention in that I would be tying up money all year and the market didn't move enough anyway it was eay to pass despite the 5 star endorsement.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;55955]Yes, I did mean only NFL RSW so should have mentioned that. I absolutely agree with your comments as it isn't a good season to tie up money and even be only up a few units in the NFL RSW department only. If these plays coud have magically disappeared the ledger looks a lot better. But the plays on the Bengals and 49ers were not completely endorsed by the betting markets I recall at the beginning of the season so I don't need magic for them to disappear since they were never there. What that means is that pro bettors not blindly betting Fez's material actually had a not bad year with Fez's own RSW betting. Fez's stuff was good enough that on some plays like Detroit, Seattle or Arizona there were just too good to pass up. Baltimore and Buffalo were probably also plays that were so good the pros had to have a piece of them. But Cincinnati and SF always were plays for a key reason you mention in that I would be tying up money all year and the market didn't move enough anyway it was eay to pass despite the 5 star endorsement.[/QUOTE] Serious question for you Skeeter. You mention passing on the Cinn and SF plays as the market didnt move enough. Does this mean that you waited to see which totals the market moved on and then played those that moved. If thats the case wouldnt you be playing worse lines all the time??

Great question. The answer is not necessarily although somewhat likely. The key is I must keep a large number of outs that I can bet at and I must watch the market carefully. If it moves enough I will look at my books and see if any of them have a "bargain" on the play. Perhaps one book hasn't moved at all and then I can lock in the same price Fezzik released at. Other times, the market may have moved significantly but one of my books hasn't moved that much I'll make the bet. That difference between my price and the Fez release price is a tax I pay to verify the information is any good. If the play never develops enough drive or moves at all it likely isn't worth a wager. I just have to assume that. Too many Fez plays come back. Once I can start betting a handicapper better than his release number, well what in the world is the point of it. I can pick games too. If Fez would actually start winning at this a pro might be able to bet on this stuff blindly and see what happens. But down 150 units in 2 years or various things? Not a chance. I'd bet Fez on release blindly even with the losing just because of the profitable middles I would have. Overall that isn't a valid strategy either as too much of the stuff doesn't offer that type of value. (That is awfully big to ask of anyone. Find a handicapper who consistently loses and offers profitable middles consistently. Talk about bucking the odds. I will allow that Fez probably has done as good a job as anyone ever has who has lost 150 units or whatever in that he does generate value on way more plays than I might expect for someone losing like this.)