CFB notes

CFB notes I don't give out picks. Not my place here, and I have no ambition to tout, so I don't have to deal with the record keeping WA debate shit. But I'll try to throw up some good points now and then. LW I mentioned that WKY had an unusual rash of receiver injuries, leading to an under. Similar play this week with Ball State having almost no QB now, and the HC admitting they'll be running and wildcatting. Look under. https://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/10786/ball-state-qb-page-out-for-season The opposite way: look over with Florida. Their OC has stated they're looking to speed up their signal calling greatly, go nearly no-huddle. The last two games have been real trench warfare types, which have lowered Fla's offensive stats, esp. with their OL injuries. But Miss St has no pass rush, so F the sacks; look to Fla to air it out. https://www.floridatoday.com/article/20091021/SPORTS0404/910210346/1002/SPORTS/Gators+may+go+to+no-huddle+this+weekend I'm not really big on injuries generally, but I note rashes of them, and that's the case with Fla St this weekend. Unbelievable number. Looks like 3 starters out and 5 Q. https://collegeinjuryreport.com/injury-report.php?selectBox=30 Can't tell me Ok St isn't looking past Baylor, ahead to Texas game on Halloween night national broadcast. https://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/article.aspx?subjectid=202&articleid=20091020_202_B1_MikeGu852416&allcom=1 If your PRs are telling you the Az/UCLA total is too high (mine is), consider this: AZ may be switching to no-huddle, and with good reason. https://www.azcentral.com/sports/ua/articles/2009/10/18/20091018spt-uafbfolo.html From the dept of overrated changes: at Colorado, much is being made of the QB change, coach's son to not-coach's son. But in truth the 34 points scored is misleading. Real score, I make it, was only about 18 points for Colorado. That means at the least no need to mark up offensive ratings for Colo, or downgrade def ratings for Kansas. If anything, the opposite: https://www2.ljworld.com/news/2009/oct/18/changes-solidify-defense/?sports Akron? Down to their 3rd string QB, and now lose top receiver (their ONLY WR with any TD catches (5) this year. Brutal. Under.

Thanks for sharing the info. Cool

Good stuff P. Thanks and Good luck this weekend.

BTW, the thing about the FSU injuries is not to necessarily bet on them tonight (the line, by my estimate, has accomodated this info by a couple of points already), but to note the result. If they underperform vs UNC, but the possibly 8 missing starters come back quickly (some of the Q's might), then don't overreact. But if they underperform, and most of the injuries stick, then downgrade the team. At this stage of the season, most of us don't overreact in changing our PR's. But again, if these injuries stick, you might want to change them quickly. And best of all, if FSU OVER performs (happens sometimes), that means they geared up. Which also means they'll probably be flat next game.

very good info. thanks, pachuca

1. Looks like Ball St Total has already adjusted to their offensive woes in a matter of a few minutes this AM: Pinny O/U 10/22/2009 11:51:06 AM 45.5o+102 45.5u-113 10/22/2009 11:58:52 AM 43.5o-108 43.5u-102 FYI CRIS Open 10/20/2009 5:46:57 PM 51.5o-110 51.5u-110 2. Any possibliity of getting a better fix on the OK St article, the link indicates it cannot be found. 3. Just a reminder to all the importance of getting a good number regarding the West Kentucky info last week, Pachuca recommended an Under 53 play (Pinny was actually 53.5 at that time) which was indeed a winner. However, the line closed at 50.5 and the game final was 30-22. Thanks for all the info.

Thanks guys. Can't emphasize enough the importance of combining this kind of capping with power ratings. Alone, the info isn't worth much, because you have to have some idea of what's in the line already. It's never enough to know "there's injuries," for example. You also have to have some idea of how much the line has adjusted for them. The AZ/UCLA game is an example. I think the info--Arizona going no-huddle, with hot new QB--is in the total. It's still useful info because it gets me off what would otherwise be an under bet in that game (and of course, the actual sample-of-1 results Saturday aren't the point), but neither does it warrant an over bet, either, by my calculations. But by my #s, though, Akron's total is fair based on season-long stats. So, I'm figuring the info in this case DOES lead to an under bet (an under bet sure to lose, now that I'm talking about it, of course) because the season-long data are misleading, because they don't have the season-long personnel. Here's the point: if you use a program-generated rating, based on season-long results, recent changes have to be manually accounted for. With some work of this sort, you can probably grind out a profit with Accuscore or Teamrankings or some such public rating system, as long as you manually adjust it. Then again, you'd need to know what data is in the algorithm, which, again using Accuscore as an example, I don't know. Do they already include an injury adjustment? Team-specific HFA? and so on. That's why I use my own.

More evidence of Florida going over (besides what I mentioned above) multiple injuries on defense: Coach Urban Meyer said Thursday that senior linebacker Brandon Spikes (groin) is "50-50" for the weekend, while defensive linemen Lawrence Marsh (ankle) and Jaye Howard (knee) are "doubtful." Junior defensive lineman Justrin Trattou (biceps) is out. https://www.gatorsports.com/article/20091022/ARTICLES/910229874/1090/GATORSFOOTBALL?Title=Notebook-UF-has-mixed-news-on-injury-front BTW, I liked seeing Fla St win last night, not because I bet on them (I didn't) but because they must have been pretty geared up to overcome so many injuries. They won on Nat TV, night game, on the road, so I expect them to come out really flat next game. And if they don't, if they gear up AGAIN, then I'll be a mini-Morrison and bet double the game after.

Pachuca you should give out picks man! You're a natural at this stuff. Enjoyed reading this thread.

My approach to sportsbetting is to make ~2000 bets a year, football and baskets, pros and colleges, sides and totals, and hopefully hit ~54% (I've managed that the past two years). That approach isn't conducive to giving out picks, because every half-point advantage matters, and it would be too time consuming. Also, I don't want the responsibility. I'd hate to give out losers. Much more comfortable giving out information that people can do what they want with, so that their decisions are their own. And I do THAT because I like info, and am willing to give what I want to receive. Plus I've found, through years of forum participation, that feedback is useful. Post something wrong and often someone out there can correct you on it.