CFL Playoffs this weekend--Hamilton vs. Montreal Summary The CFL is at playoff time now so I'll be interested in any opinions on the board.
In the first one Hamilton plays at Montreal. Hamilton is approx. a 5.5 pt dog in this game. The teams split the season series. Now one big difference for the playoff games is that instead of playing in Montreal's usual home field they will play the game at the Olympic Stadium. It is a much bigger stadium. I don't know if it improves Montreal's home field or not. I almost want to speculate it doesn't because their regular stadium is quite intimate. This place has no atmosphere for a regular season game but the playoffs are probably different.
Both these teams have closed the year with losses. Montreal lost 3 in a row. Hamilton lost 2 straight and 4 of 5.
Hard to read too much from season ending losing streaks because even if one team were winning at the end the way the CFL is structured both these teams knew they were in the playoffs for quite awhile. IMO Montreal's losses were more concerning since if they had closed the season with wins they would have won the division. Winning the division would have given them a bye and avoided this game altogether. Montreal is relatively old and certainly their QB Calvillo is and probably could have used the rest.
A couple of facts that will make you either love Montreal, hate Hamilton or love Hamilton.
(1) Hamilton has never won a playoff game at Olympic Stadium.
(2) Hamilton hasn't won in Montreal it sounds like any game since 2002.
(3) Hamilton was 2-7 on the road this year.
Why would you love Hamilton from this? Simply a terrific place to be a contrarian. Once again, they did split the season series and I think Hamilton was very close to winning one of the games in Montreal this year. That might be a clue they're ready to go over the top.
I think not having the bye bites Montreal in the ass and I repeat I haven't made a bet yet but I might take my chances with Hamilton here. Hard for me to get an idea of where the betting number will go.
I rarely have comments on totals but I will on this game. I feel these teams should play under totals around 56. It seems high because I actually think Hamilton has a good D. They certainly have a lot of talent. However, I bet one under 56.5 and it went way over earlier this year I recall as there were some TO's. And in another game I declared my own 5 star under to myself and I did cash my ticket but I think it was by a few points and there was a whole bunch of scoring in the 4th quarter.
Given that history I might be looking to play under but I haven't bet it yet and it won't be a personal 4 star more like a 2 star.
A few intangibles and I'll bias them towards Hamilton.
(1) Avon Cobourne is the former star running back for the Als and has 2 Grey cups with them now plays for Hamilton. Hamilton has done well when he runs well. He seems to have had a good but not great year. He knows Montreal at least. Hard to speculate about extra motivation.
(2) I think Hamilton has a decent edge in special teams although the Mtl kicker is good. But Hamilton's kicker has been outstanding. Medlock who college football people will recognize from UCLA hits it pretty good. Inside a domed stadium and his track record of 50+ yard FG I think they have the edge. Hamilton return game is also a cut above.
Montreal probably has loads of intangibles like experience, Calvillo at QB, I would theorize a coaching edge along with the home field and several big play guys in their O.
Hamilton is expected to play Glenn as the QB but they will bring in the back up I think if he struggles and the back up has some experience the past few weeks.
One item I also see is regarding an injury to the one of the key offensive linemen for Montreal and Calvillo's results passing have fallen off. Johnson who is a Hamilton all star LB is also questionable. And from what it sounds like half of the Montreal D in the backfield is out from who should be there based from the beginning of the year.
All in all, I like Hamilton as a hungry dog here and I'll make a small bet on them regardless of how the market reacts and if the money joins me I'll make a bigger bet. And a small bet for me on the under too.
