Check Out Sagarin this Week!

Check Out Sagarin this Week! It's in the USA Today write ups. Last week they were 10-3 in the NFL.

[QUOTE=BAGIANT;5972]It's in the USA Today write ups. Last week they were 10-3 in the NFL.[/QUOTE] I see sagarin's ratings here: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm I don't see picks anywhere. Anyway, his ratings are pretty similar to OldSchool's power ratings. The most notable difference is Denver, which he ranks much higher (and 1st overall). Either ratings set picks Denver on MNF in San Diego. And the line has been moving steadily lower. I got some +4 earlier in the week, just took +3.5 and ml +160. It seems like a very good bet, and it will likely be a great price come gametime. Denver was thought to be one of the dregs before the season started. The market has yet fully to adjust to their actual level of play. Although I admit to a bit of wariness myself. Maybe it has been just a run of luck and they're about to start playing like everybody thought they would.

Check out his College FB ratings. They are so far out of line from market numbers that you gotta wonder about his methodology. Does he use the same methodology for NFL?

i'm nearly certain his methodology is the same for all sports--he puts out ratings on a lot of stuff. simple explanation is that they're relative strength ratings based on previous final scores (as opposed to stats) and the strength of the opponents you beat.

I wish I had some good pseudo-code on Sagarin's iterative algorith to work from. I'd love to tinker with this.

I seem to remember that it got reverse engineered once, and that it wasn't too tricky. But his system, like all other public programs, doesn't win long run. Check out https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/

I know its not good overall. But when combined with other stuff in my db, some interesting patterns might pop up. Most likely, negative ones.

[QUOTE=rhinoceros;5982]I see sagarin's ratings here: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm I don't see picks anywhere. Anyway, his ratings are pretty similar to OldSchool's power ratings. The most notable difference is Denver, which he ranks much higher (and 1st overall). Either ratings set picks Denver on MNF in San Diego. And the line has been moving steadily lower. I got some +4 earlier in the week, just took +3.5 and ml +160. It seems like a very good bet, and it will likely be a great price come gametime. Denver was thought to be one of the dregs before the season started. The market has yet fully to adjust to their actual level of play. Although I admit to a bit of wariness myself. Maybe it has been just a run of luck and they're about to start playing like everybody thought they would.[/QUOTE] In the Friday or weekend edition of the USA Today, they always have a write up on this weekends NFL games. For example, they might have COLTS VS. RAMS. Then they'll give the Danny Sheridan line...COLTS -12.5. Next they'll have the Sagarin Rating. Since I don't have the actual rating at my fingetips, I'll use a made up number. Let's say the Sagarin rating for this game is Colts by 16.5. In this case, since it's higher than the line of 12.5, the Colts would be your choice. But, if the Sagarin rating was Colts by 7.3, the Rams would be your play. When I get the USA Today on Friday, I'll post the numbers right here.

Sagarin's Long-Run NFL Record Jeff Sagarin 1983-94 1022-1045 (.494) https://www.jstor.org/pss/2991216