Clayton Regular Season Wins Projections AFC

Clayton Regular Season Wins Projections AFC I took a look at some of the work by Clayton regarding RSW. I am just looking for differences between the current number and his number and also looking at the plays on this board. AFC East New England at 12 and number is 12. The Bills he has at 9 and this one is much higher than the betting number of 7.5. I don't think Clayton is the only one who thinks the Bills will take another step this year. I think the Bills will be a play to the over. The Jets he has at 8. Maybe this is an under. The betting is over 8.5 at Pinnacle. Miami is at 4. It looks like to me that the betting has already gone under as it is un 7.5-173 at Pinnacle. They were an easy under last year and I remember it opened around 8. All kinds of chances to get on them under last year and they rewarded us. It is looking like they're going under again with room to spare. AFC North Clayton has the Bengals at 8. The betting is pretty strong under 8.5-200. From what I've read so far on the Bengals Clayton's number might be reasonable. I would think the over has value as the current number seems too strongly bet under. Of course, the Bengals were one of my losers last year as they were projected to be horrible near the end of training camp. The Browns he has at 4. And the early betting is under 5.5-149. Browns were a trendy pick over last year because of their schedule and a big head fake in the pre season where they seemed okay for 2 games masking how truly horrible they were. The Ravens he has 10 and the Steelers he has 10 and those look to be in the range of where the number is now. AFC South The Texans he has 10. I think he's a little lighter than the early betting which is pressed over 10. The Titans he has 8 and the Jags he has 6 and the Colts he has 4. From those ones I kind of like the Jags over the current number over 5.5+134. Seems like value and I don't think he'll be the only one on the Jags with a win projection of at least 6. Probably analysts will get to 7 on them in some cases. AFC West He has Denver at 10. One thing I have picked up is that Denver has a very difficult schedule particularly early in the season. The early betting maybe by guys like Fez is on Manning just returning combined with a tough schedule early does seem to lend to an under. I'm thinking that the true power rating of Denver is higher so that these numbers out there at 9 or so I think they account for these factors. San Diego is at 9 matching where they are. The Chiefs are at 7 for Clayton which is lower than their number which is 8 over -110. Maybe not one I'm doing anything with but it is interesting because some analysts I've seen are positive on the Chiefs this year. And he has the Raiders at 5. This is a full 2 games below where the betting is now at 7. I have to think the Raiders under might be a good bet. They lost some guys. Does anyone really have any confidence in Palmer? It seems like Denver, San Diego and KC are all better even if collectively not that much that the Raiders might be left behind. I do love their playmakers and special teams though. He seems too low but not sure how I'd agree with a Raiders over bet.

The Colts were 3-13 Manning's rookie season. So for those who think 4 is too low for the Colts, keep that in mind.

I did bet the Bills over on the weekend and I do see their number leaking up now at Pinnacle over 7.5-130 (I think -124 the other day). I saw some further work by Clayton on the Bills and learned that their schedule is soft. On Clayton's analysis their schedule could be worth 3 wins this year and it looks like he's given them full credit for it since they won 6 LY and he has them at 9. Even the news acquisitions like Williams and Anderson have to figure the Bills will be a huge upgrade on their DL. They've had problems in there for a few years. He thinks the secondary will be better I can't expand without reading more into it but I recall they are good ball hawkers but perhaps not great cover guys. Just guessing I think Clayton would say if he leaves the team neutral and just factors in schedule he would add 3 wins. The team is clearly better in his opinion so he's probably comfortable at 9 wins with a little margin since they are better. As bettors we get the benefit of 7.5 it seems logical to think this may be a number that gets to 8. I'm not attached to this but it sounds like a reasonable play so far. I prefer a schedule analysis based on the teams and what their expected record is this year since some of those poor teams on the Bills schedule might be projected to be better but I think he sounds pretty confident. He has them as a definite playoff contender for this year.

I thought I'd update the review of the AFC from Clayton. Bills certainly still looking like good bet. Fez had the board on them a little later but the movement so strong it will be a good bet. I'll probably ride the Bills and hope for a good year from them. I was looking at Miami with 4 wins but I noted a pretty easy schedule there IMO. Clayton really making a statement with a projection of 4 wins. I noted the market flattened on the Jets to 8.5 no longer pressed over. Clayton has them at 8. I like their D again this year. I think the under at plus money was a decent bet but not one I'd want to tie up money for. Fez had the Ravens under and this one now clearly flagged as an under. A very good bet according to the numbers now. Without Suggs, an older D, an old OL, I think they're due for a letdown. They might still be in the running for the playoffs but 11 wins seems like a lot for them. Fez bet the Bengals under when the number moved to less than under 8.5-170 and it is now back to under 8.5-200 or so. It seems like a good bet to go under but I must admit I like the Bengals team and it is one I will pass and I truly think the value is over on this team but not worth the bet for me there either. I think Fez has a small bet on Browns over. I like Weedon as the starter and I do like a few of their D players. It is one I'm not going to bother to bet but maybe can get some value on the Browns during the season. Fez liked the Raiders under and with Clayton at 5 wins it seems like a pick I'd want to make but no drive here and, in fact, it is a total lemon so far. My own theory on the Raiders is that they have great kickers, great returners and McFadden. Maybe one is supposed to think that is enough to win almost half your games. It is one to watch. I haven't done any work on SD or JAX but I noted I liked JAX over in June and Fez got on over a little later. SD also has been a nice move under since Fez release. I haven't made these bets or really worked on these teams but they look okay. Commenting on IND now with the over bet from Fez does contrast with Clayton and his 4 wins. It is definitely one I won't be betting right away. If I had to pick a flaw in the Fez analysis of the play it would be weighting so significantly the fact that Luck will be a good starting QB. I actually think the market expects that he will be so his performance against St. Louis is more confirmation of that. I would like to hear other opinions but I can't imagine really anyone thinking Luck was going to look like Mark Sanchez out there. If he had a horrible game, I really think it would have attracted under bettors more than a good game would attract over bettors. However, I'm definitely not against the play but I'll look for some drive to this play to make it. The Colts problems last year seemed to really go beyond the QB. I'll watch for Clayton if his comments indicate that Luck is so good that he needs to update his numbers.