Clayton Regular Season Wins Projections NFC

Clayton Regular Season Wins Projections NFC NFC East He has the Eagles at 10. Have a feeling momentum is building on them. They are Over 10-148 so I'm sure Clayton could see 11 but this will taper me a bit on them that I only see a 10 from him. Dallas he has at 9 which is on the high side compared to the betting number. The Giants he has at 9 and that is flagging at Pinnacle now as under 9.5-194. I guess I view this as extreme based on Clayton's number and I haven't really seen anything blasting the Giants so probably nothing to do here but it seems a tiny bit of over has value but nothing I would touch now. He has the Redskins at 6. That is about the number although the bettors I think lean over 6. NFC West He has the 49ers at 10 which is bang on with the number. I was hoping to bet them under myself but I guess I won't at these numbers yet. He has Arizona at 7 and the betting is strongly under 7 at -151. Thanks to Clayton last year I went over on Arizona and although I was gasping for air early the bet survived and won. I do sense a little value on Arizona to go over again this year but nothing I'm doing but I could be persuaded. Now he has Seattle at 9 which is significantly higher than the betting number which is over 7-136. I think similar to the Bills that does command some attention from me or the Dolphins did in the AFC. I don't need to believe 9 but I can with an 8 and survive with a 7. I won't bet it but if some of you do I'll follow on the over. And he has the Rams at 4. I did realize in an earlier post that he had them as the 31st ranked team. I know Fez has these guys going over 6 and even got the tweet it is going to move a half game up. It just seems under pressure. I don't think anyone has these guys winning 7 games. I'm sure Fez has an angle on it or an insight but I don't think bettors on this over are getting any help at least right now. Maybe in TC and into the pre season Fisher and a few of their younger players will create some enthusiasm that in a relatively weak division they can contend. Ordinarily at 2 games below I'd look at this under 6 but I'll pass that and just leave this alone and wait for more info. NFC North He has the Pack at 12 right in line. And he has the Bears at 10. Seems like an endorsement on them. The betting market at Pinny has Under 9.5-156 so they seem to be doubting that the Bears are a 10 win team pretty strongly. This is about the 3rd one which has the heavy juice on a number that I'm thinking is a little heavier than it should be. I think the Bears will get some support eventually. Detroit he has at 9 which is pretty close to their number. Boy, he actually has Minnesota at 3. This might be a good insight. This is 3 games lower than their betting number which is 6 but albeit pressed under. 6 games against GB, Chi and Det. Could go 0 fer there assuming the power ratings are in line. I haven't looked at their schedule myself but I take it Clayton did. The early betting is under 6-136. This one might get pressed further. NFC South He leads off with Atlanta at 11. They are pressed over 9-147 so there might still be some room to jump on the Falcons. I know he expects big things from Jones this year. Not one I have to bet over but there may be some momentum here. NO he has only at 9. The number is under 10-145 so might be able to jump on that under. Probably no surprise there. Carolina he has at 8 and the betting is over 7.5-124. That does seem to be the trend that people like the Panthers and Clayton is somewhat endorsing it. And he concludes with TB at 6 which is exactly the number. Fez likes them under we saw. I read Clayton gave them a high rating for the work they did in FA but it is not translating into anything earth shattering regarding his expectation of them vs. the market.

Some good RSW numbers at Sportsinteraction although their limit is not much more than $200 to win. They have Seattle at Over 7-125 this is up to Over 7-171 and was Over 7-136 at time of my original note. I haven't done any work on Seattle myself but with Clayton at 9 it seems like a good bet and it has been endorsed. A great number to play here if one wants to follow. How about Giants Under 9.5-118 and Pinnacle is Under 9.5-178. Great play. I'll add the Broncos was one I played. I think under 9.5-125 a huge edge over Under 8.5+127. I think I like the Broncos more than most this year but can't turn down a good number here. There are at least 3 other pretty strong numbers in there and about 5 others which I was pretty close to playing but will leave for now. San Fran an example. They are Under 10-111 and Pinnacle is Under 10-131 and it is a 5 star play by Fez. This is a good bet to get on this play. I do like the play as I even indicated in my original note but I was hoping for better. Probably someone had better. Hoping for a 10.5 and really thinking 11 would be excellent. But I see Clayton at 10 himself and although it is a great situation for them to be under I"m sure but I did do some work on them and quite honestly the team reads like an all star team. Last year they were 8 and the sharp money had them under so it is easy enough to think last year was a total aberration---and will be extremely difficult to replicate. They have 3 really tough road games I saw and some other posters also pointed out their schedule being challenging. D is harder to replicate than O and low turnovers last year will be hard to repeat. They have the best front 7 in football. Their O line is solid it seems. Even the secondary was all right last year. They add Moss and Manningham. They even looked better at RB since Gore was a little spotty in the 2nd half last year. Can Smith do it again? I don't know. I'll be interested to watch the betting on this as the pre season starts. I just don't see this being bet to under 10-160 which is what I'm looking for in a RSW bet if I can get Under 10-120. I really think this is such an obvious under play on them that we're cheated half a game before we even start. And look at the Bears. They were under 9.5-156 at time of original post. That is when you bet the Bears. I wish I did. I think Fez has you in at a good price for 3 stars but might be too late to follow now. Clayton has the big unders flagged on St. Louis and Minnesota. St. Louis did turn a bit under now but Minnesota has been neutral in the betting and he has them at 3 wins. Let's see if there is any action against Minnesota in the coming weeks.

half a game on/off the 8 is worth 50 cents, so 9.5 -125 has to be better than 8.5 +127

This is where I made each team. Buffalo 6.5 Miami 6.5 New England 11.6 NYJ 9.4 Baltimore 8.75 Cinci 7.1 Cleveland 5.55 Pittsburgh 10.15 Houston 9.2 Indy 3.85 Jax 4.85 TN 6.8 Denver 9.8 KC 6.3 Oak 7.1 SD 9 Dallas 9.25 NYG 8.85 Phil 9.9 Wash 6.45 Chicago 8.1 Det 9.7 GB 12.1 MN 8 ATL 9.4 Car 5.8 NO 10.2 TB 5.5 AZ 5.6 STL 5.05 SF 11.1 Sea 6.05

Definitely that Denver bet is a good bet. If one likes it under or just likes good numbers it is a good play. I know way back there may have been 10 on thiis but this number at SIA is stil probably good enough to get in on. Sean, you definitely have some numbers different than the expectations. . Seattle being one example. You have Minny way up there at 8 going against a Clayton 3 and a consensus 6. Not a believer in the Bears or Bills at all. But you also are pretty close to consensus numbers on others. I also note you at over 10 on the 49ers, over 7 on the Raiders and over 10 on the Saints going directly against more Fezzik picks. About the only plays I think you match what Fez has delivered here are on Ravens and Bengals.

The Detroit move was available at SIA I think they still had Under 9.5-125 which is an exceptional number on it. That definitely was a big move. I noted Seattle was still around at my number. A great number on that bet. Giants had moved but still a good number. GB has moved enough that I bet that at Under 12+100. I noted StL did get some over money which is an original Fez play but not one I'm inclined to play as yet. I have still layed off San Fran.