College football power ratings [B]I posted this a couple of years ago at another site and got a lot of response, so thought I would post it here FWIW.[/B]
I was just curious to learn what processes other college football handicappers use to assign power ratings to the 120 teams and also to make lines during the early season (first three games or so). I have been doing power ratings for about a dozen years and feel it's one of the strongest aspects of my handicapping arsenal.
Personally, this is where I have historically been most effective in my handicapping and feel like the astute, well-informed player has the advantage over the house in CFB during the month of September.
I am primarily a fundamental handicapper and use a lot of subjectivity in arriving at my preseason power ratings and early season lines.
This is an open-ended discussion with no restrictions, so please contribute any worthwhile points whether totally on topic or only slightly.
First of all, I make power ratings for all 120 teams, with the top team typically having a PR of 100 and the worst having a PR of around 45 or perhaps slightly lower. A high concentration of teams fall in the "average" category and are assigned a PR in the neighborhood of 67-to-75.
This season, I anticipate Florida will start the season at around 105 based on their offensive prowess. They are going to be able to pile up the points on most opponents and this has to be strongly factored into its PR.
Anyway, I make three or four sets of PRs and try to compile those "independent" of one another.
I am currently doing my first set of power ratings which is essentially based on my own personal knowledge of the teams; their historical performance; returning talent; and the such. I do these without the benefit of any notes/resources/etc and it's just kind of a "what number comes to mind" sort of thing (Not that this part of the process is done in haste. I do think about it extensively).
Then I compile a second set of PRs (without referring to the first set) when Phil Steele's pub comes out. Whether you believe he is an above average or below average handicapper, he puts out a magazine that is the CFB bible for any serious capper IMO. The information and detail is incredible.
I usually buy four or five more preseason mags and will make one or two more sets of PRs from those publications. The reason I do this is I believe it is important to not rely on a single source when formulating PRs from outside entities. Although I believe strongly in Steele's magazine, his is only one and certainly subject to human biases and preferences, so I want to ensure there is a strong element of balance in my process.
From there, I look at each of the different PRs for each team (typically there is not a great deal of variance) and make sure I don't have any wide ranges of opinion. If so, I go back and fine tune those schools' numbers and then come up with the teams' final preseason PR for 2009.
Although the same teams typically fall in the A, B, C, D and F categories in college football from one season to the next, I do not refer to last year's final power ratings. I have a deep enough knowledge of the teams and my process to pretty much know where they finished without referring to it.
Returning starters is something I look at closely in those teams historically doing business in the C through F categories, but not so much a factor among the top programs.
The USCs and Ohio States of the world cannot always be judged in negative terms during years when they have 10 or fewer returning starters. Obviously, these programs recruit at a level that the "next in line" blue chipper might actually be better than the more experienced senior who exhausted his eligibility.
On offense, I obviously start at the quarterback position. This is not the NFL and some teams do throw some "stinkers" out there in the early going (Oftentimes, a junior or senior who has "waited his turn" and earned the right to start for State U. Then after game one or two, the more talented underclassman is handed the keys).
If a QB has not played (or only played sparingly), he will likely struggle in his first game; get a little better in game two; and settle into "who he is" by the fourth or fifth game (not that he won't continue to show improvement, he's just no longer having to think through every aspect of the game mentally with his head while simultaneously having to respond to fluid circumstances physically with the rest of his body).
After the QB, I look at the center and left tackle positions. If a team has new faces at QB and C, they are a better possibility to struggle early as the whole timing of a play starts with the underrated exchange between those two positions. If a team also lacks experience at the critical LT position (and they are a balanced team throwing the ball), this is an offense that is probably going to have some growing pains.
Then I look at the "playmaking" positions of RB and WR/TE. Does a team have potential playmakers in the running and passing game? One but not the other? No playmakers anywhere?
Then I move to defense. I first look at the front seven whether a team plays a 5-2 defense; the old traditional 4/3; or some other twist derived out of these two standards. If a team does not have experience or talent in the front four, they can probably be run on during the early portion of the season.
Although defensive end is the sexier position since most sacks come from the edge, I place equal stock (if not more) in the defensive tackle positions. A defense needs to be able to plug and control the middle of the field to be successful. If your "two techniques" get pushed all over the field, a team does not have to be all that creative to move the ball up and down the field on you. As in "run the ball down your throat."
In the secondary, I look for a team to have one "shutdown" or at least a capable CB with some experience. Most college teams only have one "big play" type receiver, so that's why I approach it that way. Obviously, the Floridas and USCs of the world can trot out two and, in some cases, even three receivers who have the size, route-running ability and hands to merit top-notch coverage.
Once I get my final PRs, I then make lines on all games scheduled for the month of September. I don't go any further because teams' PRs are quite fluid early in the year and _ as much as I hate to admit it _ we do even miss on a team now and then.
Please give any feedback on what you feel is most important during the early season; your preseason preparation process; and anything else you feel is a worthwhile addition to the discussion.
Good luck,
Paul
