[QUOTE=Fezzik;9596]A fake punt would likely have been better.
Punt and watch Indy drive down, and have a decent chance to beat you. Maybe 1/3 chance, maybe more, AND the clock will be down to nothing.
OR Go for it.
50% chance to make it and win.
40% chance to stop em if you don't
30% chance to get the ball back and win with a 3 even if the .5x.6=.30 nightmare hits.
NOT EVEN CLOSE[/QUOTE]
the only problem i have is with the 30% chance to get the ball back and win after the 30% nightmare hits. id estimate much less than that with manning at qb, manipulating the clock in this situation in the majority of cases.
the market on ne to win was about ne -140/+140 after the turnover on downs. if you can fairly assign even money on the chances of new england converting on 4th an 2, in that exact situation you would probably be very close to the same chances of indy driving for a winning td from say an average of 73 yards away (45 yard punt) with 2:00 left and 1 timeout.
it probably is alot closer to a toss up decision than the knee jerk reaction would tell you. very unconventional though so it will get a ton of criticism.