A Couple Fezzik and Forum Thoughts

I still maintain that in-game betting is so lucrative that Fez isn't as incentivized to focus on full-game sides and totals. However, until in-game betting is available to more people, books on the subject can't be written. There's just no liquidity yet. Instead, you really need to use the site to learn to fish. (Teams with winning records heading into later bye weeks, 8 of clubs, MLK unders, although that hasn't worked lately, etc.)

So everyone knows, I won't allow this thread to degenerate into a name-calling screamfest. THAT'S what this site is about. If you come for the picks, then you do. If you come for discussion and other things, OK. Having one of the biggest names in sports betting as the host and keeping it civil was, and is, the model. There's no magic pill for winning at gambling, here or anyplace else.

Exactly. Fezzik is clearly one of the most honest, hardest working guys in the business. Perhaps even on par with handicapping legends such as Alf or Bryan Leonard. I think some of the followers here are just growing frustrated with not seeing the fruits of all that labor, sometimes for weeks or even months. One lesson to take away from this is how long the "long run" can be. This is the main reason I am such a strong believer in the Kelly Criterian which helps us bet in proportion to our advantage.

I would guess most people come here for the picks. I like to see who Fezzik is playing so I can understand some line moves that I may or may not agree with. But I have to agree with most that since this site opened it hasn't been very productive for anyone blindly following his plays. I look at his plays and I also have access to Scott Kellen's play which are also horrendous this season and although I am only at 40-33-2 in the LVH contest if I just followed their picks blindly I wouldn't be at that number. I am kinda sticking around to see if he ever turns this thing around and I think he came out with a great explanation about the Mon night game when the line flipped flopped around on us. In defense of Scott K he has won 6 consecutive seasons before this including 64-44 last year alone and has actually won the last 2 weeks. I do miss Alf M. though.

He started it Anthony!! I guess I should have just left it alone and allowed him to name-call. And nothing would have been done about it or even addressed. That sort of always has been my plight here. But I'm a Big Boy and I can take it. Everyone wants to jump on Ole Nuke... Computer Bob does a great job, no doubt. What I would like to see is records sub-divided into Sides/Totals/Halftimes/Quarters/Team Totals etc. That way we could at least see Fezzik's Strengths as we move along in the season/seasons...I know that's more work but worthwhile... Please Computer Bob? If you say NO I might call you a name. You don't want that do you?

Not picking on you at all. I agree with most of your comments.

I have to say a few years ago I said Fezzik was an underrated handicapper on this site. There is not a chance I could be as confident in saying that today but yet the bar keeps getting lower that I'll maintain he's underrated. The less experienced bettors here will have to do their work why no betting pro can safely judge Fez's handicapping ability based on the Hilton contest because I realize their first thought is that Fezzik is completely overrated as a handicapper based on the record they've seen here. However, I do think there is something else that needs to be said and that is Fezzik's ability to pick line moves and be on the side of value is wildly overrated IMO at least with regard to the plays posted on the site. This is constantly mentioned and accepted as fact and it is totally inaccurate. Even Fez seems to have a clear blind spot in this area on his own plays. The portfolio constructed here last week I won't say was typical---in that they are usually that bad and I don't want to say the portfolios are even bad---but how in the world anyone could look at that portfolio and think they even had an advantage is not being objective. At least 2 of the plays were flagged in comments as going the other way---Tennessee and Dallas I think. St. Louis was a complete wrong side of value by game time. He's certainly on some good stuff so don't need to see examples where the board had a big advantage but the board has a tonne of plays where there is no advantage based on the market or a clear disadvantage. The sports betting business is high transaction costs so when disadvantage bets creep in they're extremely expensive and since there is such persistent play without an advantage his record reflects that. Unfortunately Fez your record is mostly earned and I'd have to see way more numbers to be convinced this season has been loaded with alot of value. I actually did think LY there were some tough weekends for sharp bettors. This year the weekend you had Denver over TB as a5 unit play and won was probably my best weekend of the season. I think the weekend before that or after was another very good weekend I think for sharp bettors. And you lost units here on it. I mean when the DJIA goes up 2% and you're picking stocks it doesn't look good to be down 10%. And nobody really cares what hours you worked or how many kids you have. And it is a lot worse when the Dow goes up 10% and you're down 10%. I haven't looked at the NFL numbers since earlier in the but this season has been dominated by underdogs and the amount of games decided by 8 pts or less has been at an all time high I read at one point. Honestly, I don't know what else you could want these guys to do. You seem to be on some good totals for value but definitely noted that there have been hiccups in that area. I actually think this year is worse than LY. I'm pretty sure sharp bettors are winning this year. I don't think it is enough to call out another single handicapper who is having a poor year and say he represents what is going on . Heck, you're mentioning it like you're doing well. I mean what nonsense are we talking about that is preventing you from winning? The nonsense of TB not covering that +4? Or that the board doesn't have 49ers +6? What reports are you looking at on Mondays?

Thru week 15: ATS Dogs are 116-103-5, 52.97% (that's broken down into: Away dogs are 77-61-3, home dogs are 39-42-2)

Handicappers/Bettors generally have certain types of bets that they do well with. I learned years ago that beating NBA with full game sides/totals was almost as tough as beating the NFL and so I made adjustments. I still do play NBA Totals and do relatively well with those but 75% of what I bet is 1st Half Totals and Props. Heck I went 7-0 last night (3-0 Totals, 4-0 Props) on these. That was a really good night but I have done very well with these the last few years... I do think that Fez has some areas of expertise but I am not sure what they are. So, starting next year, (If we are here. That Mayan thing ya know.) I am going to track all bet subsets. Totals/Sides/Halftimes/Team Totals etc. I am not going to track by Weight since in my years here I don't think Fez has any more edge on higher weighted plays. I have already had that discussion. No need to thank me. It's my way of getting value for my $24.95 a month. Computer Bob has enough to do.. I also think that Fez should look into more Prop Related Betting because I think that he might be pretty good with it. It does require more outs with lower limits but prop values differ more from book to book as well and one can take advantage of that. I have hit a few middles in fact. The NFL Market is a Booger and not going to get any better IMO. But it can be beat playing less sharp opps...

Checkers, not chess. A key point is the sample size of these bets, when broken down by type, is so small that it won't be statistically significant. Of course, it never will be. Like poker, but for different reasons, handicapping is a game of incomplete information.