A Couple Fezzik and Forum Thoughts

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;55692]Checkers, not chess. A key point is the sample size of these bets, when broken down by type, is so small that it won't be statistically significant. Of course, it never will be. Like poker, but for different reasons, handicapping is a game of incomplete information.[/QUOTE] I disagree with this but then again I have not been to any seminars. Backtracking has shown me otherwise and that while handicapping changes from year to year, and decade to decade, some things remain consistant. I guess I am different handicapper than most in that regard. I do understand being statistically significant and the reason why it must be for a significant period of time before I will pronounce a formula to be +EV.

FWIW... I joined before this season started and have played the majority of his plays, but NOT every single one. Yes, I am basically tailing him blindly. I tail quite a few cappers blindly, because frankly I don't have the time and/or experience to cap and feel comfortable. I do however, take the time to research legit handicappers (like Fezzik) and keep track of every single one of my plays. So take this information however you'd like, just trying to help everyone on here as a whole. My gains/losses tailing Fezzik: 1st Half sides: +1.85 units 1st Half totals: +5.80u 1st Quarter sides: -2.15u 1st Quarter totals: +1.00u 2nd Half sides: -0.85u 2nd Half totals: -1.00u 3rd quarter sides: -10.30u 4th quarter sides: +1.00u Parlays: +6.08u Teasers: +6.80u Props: -2.30u Full Game Sides: -25.285u Full Game ML: +7.175 Full GameTotals: -33.815 Total: -47.30u

I think the board does deliver on its mandate. Is it a picks site? Is this an information site? It is one and the same thing. The information is Fezzik's picks. If one is a pro or bets frequently, the board delivers. This is what Fezzik is betting. And if you're a recreational bettor you got his plays and obviously can follow them. This is gong to be true this year and probably next year and the year after. Fezziks picks are what matters. It is like following the Toronto Maple Leafs. They'll be talk about how they did win, lose or draw for eternity in Toronto. As long as Fezzik is an active bettor and on radio, etc. there will be people interested in his plays. I will hand it to you this board is uplifting and makes me feel confident for the future. You got to like the spirit of breaking down and sorting a guy down 60 units an trying to figure out what wins.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;55696]I think the board does deliver on its mandate. Is it a picks site? Is this an information site? It is one and the same thing. [/QUOTE] That is undoubtedly false. I appreciate Fezzik's talents and everyone at LVA. But the choice to not call it a picks site is a marketing ploy. Think about these two conversations: [B]ONE[/B] LVA: We're not a picks site, but we feature Fezzik. Customer: Sign me up! [B]TWO[/B] LVA: We're a picks site and we feature Fezzik Customer: So what's the pick record? LVA: Not so great Customer: Pass If you look at legit pick sites, like RAS, they prominently post their record because that's what people naturally ask after calling yourself a pick site. The nature of a pick site implies that you have to reveal your record. So LVA has to rely on analysis and insight, rather than an outright record, to attract people. To believe that a pick site and analysis site are the same is completely misguided.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;55676]Who is leading the pack in the Hilton? Perceived sharps or squares? That's a benchmark I would use in analyzing who is winning right now.[/QUOTE] The team that Won the LVH last year with 70% winners is 12 losses from 1st place this year - - -

Colonial no disrespect but actually there is a subset of the members here I think and what I was trying to say is that we don't care what his record his we are just interested in his picks. I want to emphasize I don't care what his record is This is going to be true today, next week and next year and probably the year after that and for many years to come quite likely. So your 2nd statement is not true. LVH tells me his record isn't so great and I say "who cares". And in the first question I actually might not sign up unless they told me his picks so that may not be true either for me. I already know everything so I don't really care about any more analysis. LOL I certainly can see many people who would not agree with this so to promote the sharing of knowledge here I'm willing to share that pro bettors are interested win or lose in Fezzik's bets. It is information of note and I'm glad to know it. It helps pros interpret what is happening in the betting market. We don't care how many squares lose betting his picks and I hope at some point you actually make money using the picks but it makes no difference to me. Squares will come and go here.

Skeeter. Sometimes you make a lot of sense. Happy Holidays.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;55704]Colonial no disrespect but actually there is a subset of the members here I think and what I was trying to say is that we don't care what his record his we are just interested in his picks. I want to emphasize I don't care what his record is This is going to be true today, next week and next year and probably the year after that and for many years to come quite likely. So your 2nd statement is not true. LVH tells me his record isn't so great and I say "who cares". And in the first question I actually might not sign up unless they told me his picks so that may not be true either for me. I already know everything so I don't really care about any more analysis. LOL I certainly can see many people who would not agree with this so to promote the sharing of knowledge here I'm willing to share that pro bettors are interested win or lose in Fezzik's bets. It is information of note and I'm glad to know it. It helps pros interpret what is happening in the betting market. We don't care how many squares lose betting his picks and I hope at some point you actually make money using the picks but it makes no difference to me. Squares will come and go here.[/QUOTE] You simply don't understand. My issue is with you considering a site (any site) calling themselves a pick site and analysis site as being the same thing - which is what you stated and what you quoted. That is simply illogical, period.

Nice job shish. Good numbers and good tracking

Larry has a picture. How cool is that! You guys need to know its not the short sprint but the long race.