A Couple Fezzik and Forum Thoughts

He was 40-40-5 last year and I absolutely agree Joel. In fact it is my whole point. But we might could argue that Fez tries way too hard to outsmart the market by adding plays throughout the weekend but his 2 year Hilton Record is 78-74-9 which is far better than what we have seen here.

Overthinking is a consideration. Remember, three years ago one of the underlying themes was not to bet on every game, especially late in the season, because most of the time the market is right. It feels as if there are more selections than there used to be, perhaps to placate those who only want picks. I'm afraid if I continue down this path, I'll begin to insult many of our members.

Interesting discussion. Marketing ploy? Nah. We barely market this site at all compared to the other things we do at LVA. This is something we wanted to try and it's had mixed success. I like a lot of things about it. People in other places who don't like me, Fezzik, whoever, get far more riled up about what goes on at LVASports than I do. One of the most underestimated concepts in gambling and many aspects of life is utility -- what is it that you specifically are looking for or that makes you happy? This site satisfies the utility of many, while others don't get what they want. There's really no universal good or bad assessment when you look at it that way. I like the brief discussion about the "mandate" here. The mandate has always been what I've stated it to be from the start, essentially to have a place that's civil and intelligent. Hopefully winning at sports betting comes with that. Sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't change the primary goal.

[QUOTE=anthony;55734]Interesting discussion. Marketing ploy? Nah. We barely market this site at all compared to the other things we do at LVA. This is something we wanted to try and it's had mixed success. I like a lot of things about it. People in other places who don't like me, Fezzik, whoever, get far more riled up about what goes on at LVASports than I do. One of the most underestimated concepts in gambling and many aspects of life is utility -- what is it that you specifically are looking for or that makes you happy? This site satisfies the utility of many, while others don't get what they want. There's really no universal good or bad assessment when you look at it that way. I like the brief discussion about the "mandate" here. The mandate has always been what I've stated it to be from the start, essentially to have a place that's civil and intelligent. Hopefully winning at sports betting comes with that. Sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't change the primary goal.[/QUOTE] And this is why we need a BBQ at Fezzik's Place. I will bring the Potato Salad. An Old Family recipe. The least I can do, and remember, you can lead a potato to water, but you can't make it boil itself..

The Hilton Contest can't be used as another method to get at Fezzik's bets. They're not even bets he has. Anyone who has made bets on Fez plays based on what he played in the Hilton contest is an honorary square for the day. That information must already be on this board somewhere. Anyone who has bet even as the most rank amateur surely has this figured out eventually. The 2 excellent reasons I can think of are that the Hilton Contest numbers for the games are unique to the contest and often not widely available. When he picks a good one you cant bet it anyway because it is not available and presumably that number itself was a huge reason for the selection. The second reason is that in the past 2 years anyway---it sounds like---he's not in contention. I have to assume a whole slew of selections are then influenced by trying to make selections possibly at even bad numbers that he thinks that if he could win those he would gain games on the leaders. Knowledge of NFL football is totally recommended not necessary for that competition. A knowledge of game theory and experience probably playing against people in games involving pressure just as valid. This is where Fezzik is way beyond my guess the general level of his competition and if he can get himself in contention through making some bets on some good numbers and decent handicapping, he's dangerous in the final weeks.

Skeeter sometime you make a lot of sense. Have I said that yet? Not on your last post though. I am good for the 1st weekend in May and June and all of July except of the 4th as I have a family thing in Atlanta. That's going to be crazy NOT Fun. Perhaps you can bring the Booze?

A BBQ sounds good but I'm a little too far from the USA at the moment for a weekend event. Definitely one can debate how much football or game theory one needs to know to win the Hilton competition. But you can't follow those plays and they mean nothing regarding his record on this site. There is no debate on that. You've got to be able to understand that and if my reasons don't make sense you've got to be able to ask and find out and work until you do understand. When the board talks about understanding and improving its knowledge of its members these things have to be clear. If one wants benchmarks for this board to go against one is what was the closing value of the bets he provided compared to the number he released at. If one does it that way I'm sure you'll find that Fez's record is rather unfortunately poor compared to what one would expect it to be. As a pro, I'd be more interested in that and in fact you see this on the RAS website where they indicate the closing value of their selections. Most RAS and even Fez selections there may be some overbetting of them that the closing value exceeds the true probability of the play just because of their "brand" in the business so I might make a small adjustment for that. A second method I would use which I briefly mentioned is just how would you do just betting underdogs? And some noted subsets of the NFL which have done well. For instance, home dogs. I like the 8 of Clubs strategy. If one just played those. If you're not beating these strategies It is underperformance. In the stock market example, Fez isn't a mutual fund but more like a hedge fund. He is pursuing strategies which are likely to result in outsized gains if he does well or outsize losses if he does poorly. And there is a comparison there but my understanding is that although the general markets have done well for a few years but my understanding although don't really have the info is that the aggregate of hedge funds have done quite poorly in the last year.

You are certainly talking about me Skeeter. I am the squarest of the square! Too bad about not making the BBQ. I heard Fezzik is making Ribs....

not really interested if fezzik wins or losses during the season, only want to know what he is betting - the market for the most part goes in his direction.. so i get a heads up on the direction of the betting marketplace - i take more of an interest in his futures play......