Cream of the Crop vs Bottom of the Barrel Some basic strategy that makes sense at this stage of the
season in pretty much every sport. Begin looking for spots
to fade those off to fast starts and find games where taking the
ones off to slow starts makes sense. These are ugly bets and
can be tough to fire on. Often you'll get the chance to lead out
on the fave and after they get bet up you play back hard on the
dog. It's all perception. One group perceived as very good and the
other as league worst. Public can't bring themselves to bet on
these type of teams and love the ones that have been paying them
off so far. Two ways to go at these games. Just wait and bet the dogs
when the line peaks/crosses a key number or bet fave early, build a position
and then fire back on dog at line zenith. The latter seems more palatable to
many who have trouble taking a stance on the ugly dog
The eight "worst" teams in the NFL should put up
a better ATS pct than the "best" eight teams from now
until the Thanksgiving day games.
Top 8 - GB, Det, Balt, SD, NE, TBay, SF, NYG
(at least 4 wins - 4 win teams must be in 1st place)
Bottom 8 - Mia, StL, Indy, Min, Den, Jax, Car, Az
(no more than one win on the season)
Overs were hitting at a nearly a 65% clip going into week 6.
Still, we saw unwarranted hi totals on several games and the
result was 9 of 12 games went UN last week. The books were
not going to allow the Sunday bettors to keep walking to the
window, shouting OVER and cashing at a 60%+ clip. The tax
on Overs was going to continue to rise till the split flattened
out. Still going to have to pay the price if you want Overs
this week as last week dropped the season to 58% Overs.
Same principle applies to popular sides, especially when facing
unpopular sides. GB/Min and Balt/Jax are obvious games to be
wary of this week. Pitt/Az, NOr/Ind, Oak/KC and Dall/StL are
in the next level down. Of those four I think AZ is probably
in the best spot. Off a bye, opp off a win (non cover vs Jax)
and not having had much success on the road. Pitt also has
a home game vs NEngland on deck. Whisenhunt should be
going all out with the gameplan vs his former team.
I already bet AZ +4. KC +4.5 probably taking next.
Already positioned with GB and Balt teasers so Min
and Jax will have to be bought at some point and yes
that will be tough to do. Like bad medicine I know it's
good for me though.
*Edit to amend OV/UN record in week 6 - it was 10 of 13 unders
not 9 of 12 - forgot MNF
