Cream of the Crop vs Bottom of the Barrel

I'm guessing he's going by records.

Betting against Top teams went 2-3. Overall 10-3-2 Betting on Bottom teams went 2-1 Overall 9-7-1 There were no Bottom vs Top pairings Overall 4-1 Updated groups: Top 8: NYG, GB, NO, SF, Hou, NYJ, Cin, Balt Bottom 8: Indy, Mia, StL, AZ, Sea, Jax, Wash, Cle

[QUOTE=frankb22;47947]Betting against Top teams went 2-3. Overall 10-3-2 Betting on Bottom teams went 2-1 Overall 9-7-1 There were no Bottom vs Top pairings Overall 4-1 Updated groups: Top 8: NYG, GB, NO, SF, Hou, NYJ, Cin, Balt Bottom 8: Indy, Mia, StL, AZ, Sea, Jax, Wash, Cle[/QUOTE] Good stuff Frank. Am I correct to assume that the theory behind this is that there will be a reversion to the mean?? I did a quick analysis and the Top 8 have a combined ATS record of 43-19-3 (69.4%) while the Bottom 8 are a combined 20-40-3 (33.3%). Seems like more of the stuff we have discussed in other threads of betting against good teams on a roll and on bad teams in slumps.

It's something I look at in basketball and football. Periodically check the SU and ATS records looking for extremes in either direction. The theory is not that they naturally regress/flatten, it's that they get help from the linesmaker and then the betting public. Not suggesting you bet any of these, my point was that if you just bet opposite the extreme perception (as long as the opponent is not in the same group) that you'd blindly show some kind of profit. Of course everyone will pick and choose who they bet if they decide to do something like that. It's tough enough to bet on some of these teams, so something about the match-up has to make sense. I understood where Fez was coming from when he took Indy. The Falcons do score out low in several categories and the spot looked decent for the Colts. I think with teams it is just tougher to sack up and bet vs the good ones and on the bad ones. If you look at the YTD OV/UN records, the same linesmaker/public-aided regression has taken place. Overs covered at an alarming rate thru the first four or five weeks and Unders have shown a healthy profit ever since. It's a lot easier to bet UN in a Pats game than it is to walk to the counter and say with a straight face that you want a ticket on the Colts or Dolphins. It's the same principle though.

Quick observation regarding Falcons/Colts: The game was in a dome (was it half empty?), so perhaps that helped Atlanta out.

Betting against Top teams went 4-3 Overall 14-6-2 Betting on Bottom teams went 2-0 Overall 11-7-1 There were no Bottom vs Top pairings Overall 4-1 Updated groups: Top 8: NE, NYG, GB, NO, SF, Hou, Chi, Pitt Bottom 8: Indy, Mia, StL, Phil, Car, Wash, Cle, OPEN (if Min loses tonight they'd get in for next week)

[QUOTE=frankb22;48196]Betting against Top teams went 4-3 Overall 14-6-2 Betting on Bottom teams went 2-0 Overall 11-7-1 There were no Bottom vs Top pairings Overall 4-1 Updated groups: Top 8: NE, NYG, GB, NO, SF, Hou, Chi, Pitt Bottom 8: Indy, Mia, StL, Phil, Car, Wash, Cle, OPEN (if Min loses tonight they'd get in for next week)[/QUOTE] Not sure how you do these rankings but I cant imagine that Phil (unless Vick is out) is worse than Sea or even Az (even with the loss this week). Just curious about your criteria. Phi is +17 point differential and Sea is -58 and Az -30. Thanks.

It's based on W/L record. If a tie then simply trying to take advantage of losses in the prior week as that usually results in some decrease in perception. Sea and Az won. Phil lost so they get in this week. I am trying not to subjectively select teams, just letting W/L records determine who is best/worst. Also forgot that a bet against GBay would be called for tonight so will update after MNF.

Betting against Top teams went 2-2 with vs NE pending Overall 16-8-2 Betting on Bottom teams went 4-3 Overall 15-10-1 Bottom 8 vs a Top 8 went 1-0 Overall 5-1 ==== Last Weeks Top8/Bottom 8: (Will update records and groups after MNF) Top 8: NE, NYG, GB, NO, SF, Hou, Chi, Pitt Bottom 8: Indy, Mia, StL, Phil, Car, Wash, Cle, Min