Defenses that get hit for interfence on 3 yard passes.........

I thought declining was the clear answer.

[QUOTE=ahearnb;6397][B]Declining that has got to be correct. Don't think it's close, really.[/B][/QUOTE] [QUOTE=ahearnb;6397][B]You guys might be right, I'm not sure[/B][/QUOTE] This makes me laugh.

If smart people disagree with me, I tend to assume I'm incorrect. But now that Custer agrees with me, I might be right again. :)

The clock issue twoniner brought up is making me think twice. Still, they've gotta be only maybe 10-15% to make the first down and even then a TD is by no means guaranteed. Plus the FP after a possible missed FG sure would be nice. Put it this way, if they decline and give them the 44-yard FG attempt they give up 3*0.85 = about 2.5 points of expectation but then they get maybe 1.5 points of expectation the rest of the quarter given they get the ball with a nice amount of time left on the clock. So that's about -1 points of expectation. If they give them 3rd and 16 from the 37, what are the possibilities? We'll give them a generous 15% shot to make the FD, 50% to make a short gain but not a FD and 35% for an inc pass. Pulling numbers out of my ass I'll go with: .15 * -4.5 + .5 * -0.5 + .35 * 1 = -0.575 Lots of room for error there of course. But I don't think you can call this decision a slam dunk one way or the other.

.15 is low, -4.5 I think is low too, when they make a short gain but not a fd, they give up a lot more than -1 (the guy is not 33% to make a 35-53 yard fg)...you gave him 85% on 44 yards

[QUOTE=custer;6548]-4.5 I think is low too, when they make a short gain but not a fd, they give up a lot more than -1 (the guy is not 33% to make a 35-53 yard fg)...you gave him 85% on 44 yards[/QUOTE] Both these figs take into account that DEN gets some expected points in return with (likely) last possession of the half, just as I did in the decline scenario. Here are approximate numbers for the FD scenario: TD: 60% FG: 25% Turnover: 15% 0.6*7 + 0.25*3 + 0.15*0 = 4.95 points Take away half a point for DEN possible return points and you get your 4.5.

15% turnover? I think we're both in agreement that the expected points when they gain yards on 3rd down but don't get the FD are the same as when they decline the penalty. I think we differ slightly the expected points when they get the FD, as 15% for a turnover seems high. But your numbers now seem to say it was very slightly better to accept the penalty.

[QUOTE=custer;6556]15% turnover? I think we're both in agreement that the expected points when they gain yards on 3rd down but don't get the FD are the same as when they decline the penalty. I think we differ slightly the expected points when they get the FD, as 15% for a turnover seems high.[/QUOTE] Maybe. Even 10% turnover and 30% FG only gives a result of 5.1 points and you still have to take some away for DEN return points. Your dream scenario of TD combined with little or no time for a return DEN drive really is a pretty big dog. I don't think you can assign any reasonable numbers to the above variables that will give a whole lot more than 4.5 expected points after a FD. Even if you assign a generous 5 points it still doesn't change the original equation a whole lot: .15 * -5 + .5 * -0.5 + .35 * 1 = -0.65

(anyone is free to insert a Thread That Wouldn't Die pic anytime they want)

I agreed with you. Stop convincing me. :)