Defensive Explosive Plays Last year in the 2nd half of the season I posted a look at some
of the defenses that appeared overvalued and undervalued by comparing
a teams standard yardage allowed stats with that of their explosive
play frequency. Impact plays such as sacks and interceptions were
used to explain why certain teams like last years New England and
Green Bay teams weren't as bad as cumulative yardage statistics would
indicate. Winning teams (see Denver this year) often have these
deceptive yardage stats due to play in the second half which often consists
of their opponents being in chase mode. This works the other way too
at times. I like to use the example of the Florida International team who
ranked #4 in pass yards allowed in the nation in 2006. They went 0-12.
No one needed to sling it vs them as they always trailed. They weren't
good against the pass. They just had a lot fewer pass attempts vs them.
Cumulative yardage stats can often be misleading if not put into context.
Through week 10 these are the Takeaway and Sack rankings. Added
up gives you their Explosive Plays Per Game number. The last column
is each teams pass yards allowed and rankings for comparison.
On the overvalued side are the Texans, Steelers, Jaguars and Giants.
Of these the Texans and Steelers are clearly the most affected by their
lack of Explosive Plays on defense. They rank #1 and #4 in pass yards
allowed. Yardage wise you will hear the talking heads proclaim these teams
as defending the pass well. Their lack of impact plays though add nothing
to their stingy yardage totals. Fumbles are included in the Takeaways stat
but I just as easily could have counted INTs only. A lot of fumbles come
as a result of pressure on the QB so felt their inclusion can be justified.
Undervalued are Cardinals, Ravens, Broncos, Cowboys
After the last two weeks performance by Dallas, especially in the 2H
of both games, it is tough to call them undervalued. They lose Sean Lee
and the wheels fell off vs the Saints. Against the Lions they played fine for
the majority of the game and then gave up 24 pts in the 4th quarter.
The current situation there is not good so they are not a team I'm going
to get bullish on defensively. The Cards and Ravens I'm OK with and the
Broncos are a classic example of a teams generic pass defense stats being
somewhat skewed due to the frequent blowout games they play in.
Team Takeaway Rank Sack Rank EPPG Rank Pass Yds Rank
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Arizona 2.2 3 2.9 16 5.1 6 243.7 20
Atlanta 0.9 27 2.1 25 3 30 252 25
Baltimore 1.4 24 3.6 2 5 7 239.7 18
Buffalo 1.6 18 3.2 7 4.8 9 238.6 17
Carolina 2.3 2 3.2 6 5.5 2 201.3 5
Chicago 2.2 4 1.6 31 3.8 23 249.8 23
Cincinnati 1.6 17 3 13 4.6 14 209.4 7
Cleveland 1.2 26 3.4 3 4.6 14 217.4 10
Dallas 2.2 6 2.4 21 4.6 14 313 32
Denver 1.8 11 2.9 14 4.7 11 287.9 30
Detroit 1.6 20 1.7 29 3.3 27 275.6 27
Green Bay 0.9 28 3 12 3.9 20 246.1 21
Houston 0.9 29 2.3 24 3.2 28 166.6 1
Indy 1.6 23 2.7 18 4.3 18 241.2 19
Jacks 1.3 25 1.3 32 2.6 31 235.9 13
Kan City 2.6 1 4.1 1 6.7 1 208.3 6
Miami 1.8 13 3 10 4.8 10 238 16
Minnesota 1.6 21 2.3 23 3.9 21 286.6 29
New Engl 2.1 7 3.2 5 5.3 4 232.8 12
New Orl 1.7 15 3.2 4 4.9 8 199.9 3
NY Giants 1.7 16 1.6 30 3.3 26 227 11
NY Jets 0.8 31 3 11 3.8 22 251.4 24
Oakland 1.6 22 2.9 15 4.5 16 246.6 22
Philly 1.7 14 2 27 3.7 24 306.5 31
Pittsburgh 0.8 30 1.8 28 2.6 32 201.3 4
San Diego 0.7 32 2.4 20 3.1 29 279.6 28
San Fran 2 8 2.3 22 4.3 17 211.4 9
Seattle 2.2 5 3.2 8 5.4 3 178 2
St Louis 1.9 9 3.2 9 5.1 5 237.3 15
Tamp Bay 1.6 19 2.1 26 3.7 25 237.2 14
Tennessee 1.9 10 2.8 17 4.7 12 211.3 8
Wash 1.8 12 2.4 19 4.2 19 274.8 26
I will try to put together a similar comparison come bowl season for NCAA.
