Dervivative Team Betting: Learning from Prof. Meyer

Dervivative Team Betting: Learning from Prof. Meyer I learned a key concept today. All things being equal "20" is a more key number for NFL fav's than it is for dogs, specifically NFL fav's 'land' on 20 more than dogs, given both are projected to score about 20.5 points. This actually makes sense. NFL teams score more TDS than Fgs. Assuming we score 17 points, and we are in the 4q it is much more likely the fav. is ahead/within 1-3 and will kick a fg. With the dog, if the team is down 31-17, we are 'drawing dead' to 20 here.

Actually the difference is not significant. Favourites land on 20 7% of the time, dogs 5%. With just 155 and 101 games, i would Think it could be a random difference.

Agree, small sample. The disparity on the number 21 was actually bigger than 20, which was opposite of our hypothesis.

More Data Everyone is making sense here and no one is contradicting anyone else. Indeed the disparity MAY be a random fluctuation. But, as Fezzik states, it makes SENSE. In a effort to shed more light on the numbers, I expanded the search a half point in either direction. So, instead of insisting that the team total be exactly 20.5 points, I accepted everything in the range from 20 through 21 inclusive. This was done with this SDQL: 20

Could you look at small favourites versus big favourites. I would Think 0-3 point favourites were much more likely to score exactly 20 points than favourites of more than 3 points. Also i would guess the number 20 is more important in games with a low total like less than 41, than in games with a total higher than 41.

Small vs Big Favorites With the same team total criterion; 20

Oh My I think everyone has had too much down time seeking random situations or watching Inception and still is stuck in the dream we Move on Dallas was more play +3 then Cincy Even due to amount of fans at contest celebrating Mr. Smith inclusion into Hall of Fame due to Statements of coaches stating clearly and loudly that getting off to great start in 2010 with game in 4 days an absolute due to Dallas' second and third team of two year ago draft picks being hurt and returning for this contest were out to prove their worth that will continue throughout preseason in other areas of substance for the game Boys lose 3rd string TE John Phillips who would had been HUGE difference maker in 2010 who started four games as a rookie last year, as he will miss the season because of a torn ligament in the right knee The play of Kitna and McGee at QB will be difference of wins in forthcoming games before game 4 dress rehearsal for season By the way, The Boys need 3 TE's in their system as last season used multiple tight ends on nearly one-third of their plays. They had multiple tight ends for 323 snaps and gained 1,878 yards. It was the third-highest yardage total in the league for multiple-tight-end formations. Adjustments will be made as whitten and Bennett are only healthy TE's on squad right now.. Only drive Romo led died with 1st and goal at 2 yard line, this was major issue last year and will be key to going further in playoffs for 2010... pay attention The Cowboys scored only 26 touchdowns in 50 series inside the red zone last year... Yikes Good Luck to all in 2010

Good info! Keep it coming....