The diminishing value of sports betting (at least full games)

The diminishing value of sports betting (at least full games) Each year I take a look at the value of betting both on a $ amount and hours spent amount. The last 3-4 years, I feel it is certainly going in the wrong direction. The combination of every book having the same line, moving on air, no Neteller, and much tighter lines with a better educated public is pushing this towards break even at best. I'm fairly convinced that betting full NFL, NBA, and possibly CFB games is no longer profitable to many people. I recall 8-10 years ago seeing many many posters on these boards or other boards with winning records. Right now, the only group I know with over 100 picks and a profit is RAS. Anyone know of any others with 100+ picks vs WA lines who have shown a profit this year with a documented record? I think there may still be some value to be had in 2Hs and team totals, but the edge is razor thin. I'm going to do some work on these during the off season, but if I don't find anything approaching 55%, I think it's gonna be time to buy and rent condos - probably a better return with less hours of work. -Sean

I think halftimes are the way of the present and future. You have to get good offscreen outs where you settle in cash with an agent....the hassle of trying to move money thru a processor would do me in, especially as hard as it is to win now in the first place. I'm sure something will materialize (new sport/new style/new options) that will give some new +EV situations to present themselves over the next few years... Until then there are always NFL OVERS to bet :)

Nice. Also, let's pay attention to changes that result from the new NFL labor agreement, whatever they end up being. And if the NFL locks 'em out, the UFL. Edited to add: The saving grace for us could be the decriminalization of sports betting online. The enemy is in some ways a lack of square liquidity.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;38086]Nice. Also, let's pay attention to changes that result from the new NFL labor agreement, whatever they end up being. And if the NFL locks 'em out, the UFL. Edited to add: The saving grace for us could be the decriminalization of sports betting online. The enemy is in some ways a lack of square liquidity.[/QUOTE] Bingo. This is a great point on the "lack of square liquidity". Things constantly evolve in any aspect of life. Adapting is often the key to success. Look for major changes in the marketplace when "decriminalization of sports betting online" finally happens. Maybe bonuses will once again become worthwhile!

I can win. I just don't think I'm winning enough for the time value of money. 10 years ago, you could make 100+% if you knew how to breathe. Now of days you might make 20-30% in a good year and if you throw in the 40+ hours per week + pain in the ass of moving money + constant risk of being stiffed, etc I'm not sure it's the best use of time and funds.

[QUOTE=sean1;38082]Each year I take a look at the value of betting both on a $ amount and hours spent amount. The last 3-4 years, I feel it is certainly going in the wrong direction. The combination of every book having the same line, moving on air, no Neteller, and much tighter lines with a better educated public is pushing this towards break even at best. I'm fairly convinced that betting full NFL, NBA, and possibly CFB games is no longer profitable to many people. I recall 8-10 years ago seeing many many posters on these boards or other boards with winning records. Right now, the only group I know with over 100 picks and a profit is RAS. Anyone know of any others with 100+ picks vs WA lines who have shown a profit this year with a documented record? I think there may still be some value to be had in 2Hs and team totals, but the edge is razor thin. I'm going to do some work on these during the off season, but if I don't find anything approaching 55%, I think it's gonna be time to buy and rent condos - probably a better return with less hours of work. -Sean[/QUOTE] This is one of the most intelligent comments written on this board ever...Well done Sean...

I believe the key is to be honest with yourself about your results and to track your action closely enough to be able to ascertain what you are winning at and what you are wasting your time/money on. I have a spreadsheet that shows my results by Sport and by book. I've been tracking it that way for about 18 years. I know where I'm winning and where I'm not. I know who I follow that profits me and who I've wasted time and money following. I think too many of us want to have too much action. We want to bet sports we love to watch but maybe we can't win at those sports. I win at football and baskets every year. Not monumental amounts but enough that it's worth my time. I follow some quality cappers and do a little myself. I enjoy baseball and hockey, and even tennis or golf but I don't win money there so my wagers are recreational in those sports. Fine something that works and harvest there. Don't spead yourself thin. Makes me think of all the people that always come back from Vegas saying they broke even...bullshit. They forget about a few ATM visits or are in denial. Track your results and leave the excuses behind. If you win, stay with it, if you don't, KNOW that you don't and bail. Just my 2 cents.

[QUOTE=Calsport;38268]I believe the key is to be honest with yourself about your results and to track your action closely enough to be able to ascertain what you are winning at and what you are wasting your time/money on. I have a spreadsheet that shows my results by Sport and by book. I've been tracking it that way for about 18 years. I know where I'm winning and where I'm not. I know who I follow that profits me and who I've wasted time and money following. I think too many of us want to have too much action. We want to bet sports we love to watch but maybe we can't win at those sports. I win at football and baskets every year. Not monumental amounts but enough that it's worth my time. I follow some quality cappers and do a little myself. I enjoy baseball and hockey, and even tennis or golf but I don't win money there so my wagers are recreational in those sports. Fine something that works and harvest there. Don't spead yourself thin. Makes me think of all the people that always come back from Vegas saying they broke even...bullshit. They forget about a few ATM visits or are in denial. Track your results and leave the excuses behind. If you win, stay with it, if you don't, KNOW that you don't and bail. Just my 2 cents.[/QUOTE] Very well said. Record keeping is huge. It allows you to find your strengths and where to trim the fat. Also note the definition of insanity...."Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results"---WallStreet $ Never sleeps. If the game is too tough, then yes it may be time to sell condos.

Great posts by Calsport, Dude, and Sean. Everyone makes very valid points. As a trader and person in the financial services, the desire for granularity in data is only getting higher and focusing on what you do well is critical for success. Speaking generally though, the opportunties to grab great numbers seems literally like an arms race and the dicotomy between structure and strategy. By structure meaning if you don't have a multitude of offshore outs and domestic outs where you can play at these numbers, you are putting yourself in a less than desirable position, irrespective of your handicapping acumen. Then the strategy component comes from focusing on your actual ability to assess the metrics of the underlying sporting event. Either way, the market has evolved and gotten sharper. For me I enjoy a number of components of this. And despite this being my best year ever from a process standpoint. In terms of getting down at numbers and anticipating moves, in game wagering value and setting up some monster middles nearly every week. I have never lost more money than this year. So it's good for a chuckle b/c on the trading side, while I improve every year as a trader, the last 12 months I just crushed the markets. Doing an honest assessment, I didn't trade particularly that much better than any year previous. My maximum adverse excursion vs. favorable excursion was better, but not materially. Gold just decided to cooperate along with some other trades that worked out nicely...So does it mean I'm now a great trader and a horrible sports bettor. I don't think so and the only way you can make that assessment is to do what Calsport and Dude mentions and keep diligent records. It's why reporting and data management are so critical in keeping you from deviating or experiencing style drift in your strategy...Again, very good thread...

The thing that really doesn't belong in the formula for winning vs major sports is the WA thing. As a trader I'm sure John doesn't want to dive in at market price. I know WA is not the goal of those who knock down good money at this so why is it expected to be when following a posted pick. Many believe in the "beat Pinnys closers" theory. It should apply to following a posted pick as well if that pick is posted as WA.