The diminishing value of sports betting (at least full games)

Thanks for that. We take a lot of criticism for downplaying the record-keeping, but what Frank says is absolute. Hence, it's just foolish to use widely available as a barometer. Plus, WA for one is not WA for another. As I've stated many times, following a single expert at market numbers is not the magic pill so many wish existed. There is no magic pill. It takes effort.

[QUOTE=frankb22;38277]The thing that really doesn't belong in the formula for winning vs major sports is the WA thing. As a trader I'm sure John doesn't want to dive in at market price. I know WA is not the goal of those who knock down good money at this so why is it expected to be when following a posted pick. Many believe in the "beat Pinnys closers" theory. It should apply to following a posted pick as well if that pick is posted as WA.[/QUOTE] You are spot on Frank... As a rule I look to provide liquidity on the side of the trend factoring in a number of sentimental, technical, and fundamental indicators. It's the role as a liquidity provider that goes a long way in determining success but being a liquidity provider alone doesn't not guarantee success. There are a number of subtleties which play a role in not only your return but the unit of volatility per your return...

[QUOTE=frankb22;38277]The thing that really doesn't belong in the formula for winning vs major sports is the WA thing.[/QUOTE] When anyone brings up the WA issue, I'm always reminded of a Rob Singer (a very good friend of Fezzik's ...lol) post on the old LVA board. Rob was a dyed-in-the-wool Patroits fanatic and so after the fact, he bragged about winning his Pats vs Eagles SB bet with a friend. Since the Pats didn't cover the spread, he was questioned whether he bet his friend on the moneyline. Singer responded he didn't know what a ML was, that he just bet his friend SU (at EVEN odds) that the Pats would win! Moral of the story is that for personal accounts, few people care what someone else wins or loses (certainly I don't give a damn what Frank, Fezzik, Netto, etc. win privately unless their techniques are something that I can apply). For forum purposes, only "WA" or equivalent metric makes any sense. It provides the only sensible measure for documenting whether anyone other than the poster can make money off of someone's picks. Keeping records of bets like Rob Singer made is obviously a wasted effort.

And on a similar tangent. If the line is -17 everywhere. Everybody knows -16 is a good bet. If you bet that then great, but it's pointless to share.

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;38303]When anyone brings up the WA issue, I'm always reminded of a Rob Singer (a very good friend of Fezzik's ...lol) post on the old LVA board. Rob was a dyed-in-the-wool Patroits fanatic and so after the fact, he bragged about winning his Pats vs Eagles SB bet with a friend. Since the Pats didn't cover the spread, he was questioned whether he bet his friend on the moneyline. Singer responded he didn't know what a ML was, that he just bet his friend SU (at EVEN odds) that the Pats would win! Moral of the story is that for personal accounts, few people care what someone else wins or loses (certainly I don't give a damn what Frank, Fezzik, Netto, etc. win privately unless their techniques are something that I can apply). For forum purposes, only "WA" or equivalent metric makes any sense. It provides the only sensible measure for documenting whether anyone other than the poster can make money off of someone's picks. Keeping records of bets like Rob Singer made is obviously a wasted effort.[/QUOTE] Perfect example and 100% agree with you.

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;38303] For forum purposes, only "WA" or equivalent metric makes any sense. It provides the only sensible measure for documenting whether anyone other than the poster can make money off of someone's picks. Keeping records of bets like Rob Singer made is obviously a wasted effort.[/QUOTE] Nope. It's noise that causes problems and missed opportunities. Keeping YOUR OWN records is the only thing that's "sensible."

[QUOTE=anthony;38307]Nope. It's noise that causes problems and missed opportunities. Keeping YOUR OWN records is the only thing that's "sensible."[/QUOTE] Keeping your own records is fine, and I highly recommend it, however it really has nothing to do with this forum.

Says you? Maybe we should talk and you can clue me in.

I agree it is great to bet non widely available lines, but where are you getting them? Sure I can turn $100 into $200 or $5000 into $10000, but good luck turning $100,000 into $200,000 or $500,000 int $1M. You can take 20-30k of SIA. You might take some from Bodog before they cut you off. You can get a bit from Mania or Phoenix, but quickly have $100-250 limits. Carib has rogue lines, but good luck getting any money there or back. You can play with locals, but if you want to play sizeable money you always risk getting stiffed. 5 years ago, Greek, Pinny, Cris, etc would all have different lines. Now they are all the same 90+% of the time and they are never more than half a point different. Bottom line is 5 years ago, anyone with any math skills could double 6 figures in a year. Now of days I'd guess less than 10 people on this board have doubled six figures in the past 12 months and I'd guess less than 2 have done it without working 60 hours+ per week. It's easy to make 10%. But you can do that in other less risky things. Anyways, gonna go look at second halves. Sean

It's somewhere in the middle for many and it can absolutely be done on the high end by the best. But you've just made my point for most who are on this board. If a $25-$200 bettor has enough outs, pays attention, and devotes some effort, the "pot of gold" lies beyond WA, which is why I don't like the emphasis that's always put on it.