Down 9 4th quarter, coaches HAVE tolearn to go for 2

Down 9 4th quarter, coaches HAVE tolearn to go for 2 YOU need 2 tds, but you HAVE NO IDEA if you are going to make that 2 point conversion. Obviously, the 'right' thing to do (since it is almost a given you are going for 2 at some point) is to get it over with right away, and if you miss, you can adjust your gameplan accordingly...... Note, mathematically even down 8 mid 4th quarter, it is clearly correct to go for 2 THEN! Solve by inspection easy, but no coach EVERY gets this one right.......I know the conversion rate is under 50%, but if it was, AND GIVEN you get 2 tds and go to OT by kicking, then you have a 50/50 chance to beat a comparable team (assuming a 100% kick success rate) and a 62.5% by going for 2.......obviouly even with a 44% success rate, you are better off going for it. FURTHER, if these dinasaurs were REALLY clever they would FAKE the kick down 8, those things work about 99.999% of the time (ok more like 77%).

First one is definitely correct, but there is a ton of resistance out there against it. I saw both Mack Brown and Gary Kubiak amazingly do the right thing and go for two early in this spot, and they were both crucified by game announcers (Mike Tirico was one, who is usually somewhat intelligent), and by post game analysis. The logic of course being. NEvER GO FOR 2 UNLESS YOU HAVE TO! As if going for 2 on your last drive has a higher success rate. Really the justification of all these bad coaching decisions is just to keep the "feeling' of being in the game, not actually giving your team the best chance to win it.

Explain to me as if I was Marvin Lewis why you go for 2 down by 9?

I admit that I dont get it either. Maybe he meant you are down 15. Down by 9 you do not need 2 TD's as Fezz stated but 2 SCORES. Seems like you would want to kick so that the FG wins rather than ties and if you make it then the FG means you win by 2 instead of 1?? Makes little sense.

Agree when down 8; disagree when down 9. We'll go with you assumptions that it's 100% success rate on kicks and 50% on the deuce, to a certain extent. Assume that if you make the two-pointer, you will score a second TD AND hold them scoreless 20 times out of 50, and win 10 of them in OT. However, if you miss that two-pointer, you're down 9, so you onside kick (10% success rate when the opposition is expecting it). And if you score to go down 2, you have to do it again, complete a field goal drive, and win in regulation. But I doubt you'll score that second TD as often down 9 as you will down 8. The motivation is gone. You might win one out of 100, giving you 10.2 wins when you go for two on the first TD. But if you kick first and go for two on the second TD, your success rate on the two-pointer will be higher. Why? Because you have now pushed them around for two successive drives. They are back on their heels. Was there any doubt that Houston was going to convert on their last TD last night? I'd have to put the success rate at 60% at least. This will get you into OT 24 times, resulting in 12 wins. I believe your assumption that there is an equal chance to convert the deuce on either TD is incorrect. P.S. Fez is talking about being down 9 PENDING the PAT.