Dr Bob is whining Fezz! 13-14 YTD!

Dr Bob is whining Fezz! 13-14 YTD! Week 7 and Season to Date I was 2-4 on my week 6 Best Bets and 5-2 on my Strong Opinions. I lost 3-Stars with Michigan State -13 1/2, who out-gained Northwestern 6.2 yards per play to 4.9 yppl, but couldn't get over the hump after a slow start. A 1.3 yppl advantage would normally result in a 10 to 14 point win, so that was not a game that I was necessarily on the right side of. After a couple of weeks of some unlucky losses (Arizona and Wake Forest last week, West Virginia in week 5 against Colorado) I had a lucky win with my 3-Star on Temple -10, as the Owls had no right covering that game against Army. I'm still not even on my luck this year (2 of the unlucky losses mentioned above were 4-Star Best Bets), but that one helped a little. I lost with Alabama -17, who won only 20-6 despite averaging 6.7 yppl and allowing just 3.8 yppl. A -2 in turnover margin cost me that game, as a 2.9 yppl advantage would normally result in a 24 to 28 point win. I lost with 3-Stars on Nebraska, which was out-played by Texas Tech 4.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl and a -2 in turnover made the final score worse than it should have been. Still, that one was obviously a bad call. I lost a 3-Star on Hawaii +9 1/2, as the Warriors lost by 12 points (which is about what the game stats would predict). I won a toss-up game with my 2-Star on Fresno State -19 as the Bulldogs won by 20 points (although they out-gained SJ State, 7.2 yppl to 5.2 yppl and covered despite a -1 in turnover margin). Overall, my 2-4 record was deserved as I feel I should have lost Temple and should have won Alabama. My Strong Opinions went 5-2 with a Friday win on Pittsburgh, a loss on Baylor, a win on Ohio, a win on Southern Miss, a loss on UCF, a win on SMU, and a win on the Missouri-Oklahoma State Under, which was in the free analysis section. I was officially 2-4 on my Best Bets (5-11 on a Star Basis) based on the lines at the time of release to my subscribers. The lines on my Best Bets move shortly after releasing them to my monthly and season subscribers and I also keep a record based on the lines after they've moved. This week you would have done better after the line moves. The differences were as follows. Temple went from a 3-Star at -10 to a 2-Star win at -10 1/2. Alabama went from a 2-Star loss at -17 to a non Best Bet when the line moved to -18 a minute after my release. Nebraska went from a 3-Star loss at -10 or less to a 2-Star loss at -10 1/2. Some of you that waited until Saturday to bet may have also pushed or lost with Fresno -20 or 20 1/2, but the line after the line move was -19 1/2, which was the number at every book I track all day on Friday. My record on stars after the line moves was 4-8 instead of 5-11. I am now 13-14-1 (35-39-3 on a Star Basis) on my Best Bets for the season based on the line at the time of release and 11-12-2 (26-33-5 on Stars) based on the line after it moves. The Strong Opinions are now 24-16 for the season. I'm down for the season, but I've also had more unlucky losses (5) than lucky wins (2, with 1 push that was also lucky). Sadly, two of the unlucky losses were on 4-Star Best Bets, with Arizona against Washington last week and West Virginia against Colorado in week 5 (-4 in fumbles and still had the game covered until a meaningless Colorado TD in the final minutes. Right there is a swing of 16.8 Stars (-8.8 instead of +8) and the difference between being +8.9 Stars for the season and -7.9 Stars, which is where I'm sitting at right now (at -1.10 odds).

Someone please tell Bob he won't win sans 2.5 points. .......... "At -14 it is a 3 star, and a 2 star up to -17" The scamdicappers of the world would be proud.

[quote=fezzik;6479].......... "at -14 it is a 3 star, and a 2 star up to -17" the scamdicappers of the world would be proud.[/quote] fezz. The scams are all around us! On adam meyers website, he says 70% documented over the last three years. I do not beleive it. I think he is closer to 90%

gee, I wonder if 2 of Bobs unlucky losses were on big plays, such as 4 star.

[QUOTE=hardrock;6497]gee, I wonder if 2 of Bobs unlucky losses were on big plays, such as 4 star.[/QUOTE] He says at least one of those were in the West Virginia game (4 star) because Colorado scored on the last play or close to it. While WV may have dominated that game, he easily forgets WV scored right before the late Colorado score to get to a point where they were covering for the first time in the game. While I agree there can be unlucky losses, etc (See Mn this past Sunday where they led most of the way) it is what it is. Move on and quit whining. Every year when he loses it's about unlucky losses. Move on.

ya West Va. was never the right side... they were covering for like 2 minutes. Its like when u get all the money in preflop and u have Aces and the other guy Kings... he turns a king and u river an Ace.

That brings up an interesting point. For fave of level X, what is the average amount of time spent in coverage of the line? The larger the fave, the lower the time I would think. A lot of 35 point faves won't even get over their number for the first time until the last couple of minutes.

"I am now 13-14-1 (35-39-3 on a Star Basis) on my Best Bets for the season based on the line at the time of release and 11-12-2 (26-33-5 on Stars) based on the line after it moves." That's over 7.5% losses on line moves from opening...eye opener..didn't think it was that much, regardless of the total number of "stars" not matching for before and after line moves.

[QUOTE=49r;6546]"I am now 13-14-1 (35-39-3 on a Star Basis) on my Best Bets for the season based on the line at the time of release and 11-12-2 (26-33-5 on Stars) based on the line after it moves." That's over 7.5% losses on line moves from opening...eye opener..didn't think it was that much, regardless of the total number of "stars" not matching for before and after line moves.[/QUOTE] He says it is abnormaly high this year. Have no idea if it is or not.

[QUOTE=Tiresias;6519]That brings up an interesting point. For fave of level X, what is the average amount of time spent in coverage of the line? The larger the fave, the lower the time I would think. A lot of 35 point faves won't even get over their number for the first time until the last couple of minutes.[/QUOTE] Good question. Don't know that answer. The other way I would spin that is a team can dominate but not deserve to cover a -20 point spread. They could dominate a game but only deserve to win by -15 points, etc. Not saying that is the case here. I believe WV had several turnovers in that game. My point is nobody wants to hear sour grapes. If you are talented enough to win, it will take care of itself.