Early look at a few games

Early look at a few games The Ravens lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season. Two straight weeks they have allowed over 200 yds on the ground I read. Heck, even the Bills only allowed 180 yesterday and they are bad vs. the run. Probably has to be one reason that Fez likes the over 47 (which is gone I believe for the most part---I didn't get it). The Texans got raked yday and we know the Ravens are clicking offensively somewhat. No doubt I'm late to this party but I actually laid -6 on the Texans. It opened 4.5. Probably some good predictors got in figuring this information would come out as there was some uncertainty regarding Lewis. That has moved it to 6 but I still think this train can go a little more. I'd like to think I could take 7 on this and I'm even hoping for 7.5. I might be wrong but it is a great revenge spot for the Texans at home coming off last night's poor effort. I don't want to call the Ravens phony but 5-1 is too good for them. I think this will be a tough spot. The Texans obviously we know are a good running team. I see Fezzik on the 49ers as a 4 star. Brady set his personal record for throws yesterday and one of his comments after the game was that the Seattle D sets up to force more throws. After all NE's ground game was tearing it up but they didn't run very much against the Seahawks. What is interesting about that is that at least for me I hear more about their pass D than their run D on Seattle. I hear about Browner, Thomas, etc, in the secondary and I hear about Irvin and Clemons (well we saw that one quarter they were sacking Rodgers like crazy). So they have a good D and that is all there is to it. The 49ers will try to run but it sounds like Seattle is not the Bills. And if SF has to throw the ball....well Smith isn't Brady. At the same time I assume Wilson's hail mary's---on the road----vs. SF D won't complete as often as vs NE at home. I absolutely am not saying I'm betting Seattle- here but if I want SF I have to wait until game time to see how this shakes out. This just doesn't sound like a play where my 4 unit bet -7 is going to give me +10 at game time...or even +9. Heck, I'm worried my -7 will give me +6 at game time here. If the line moves over 7, I'll tease SF and hope for the best. I will add I like the 49ers situations. The Seahawks already have big wins over NE, Dallas and GB. It seems like they are ready for a letdown but I don't know. It is one of those things maybe they make it through one more big game and play a dead duck at home against someone else.

Sea 1-AWHOLELOT ATS, off a win, then on the road...... I mean go back years to find that 2nd win......

Fez The Sea-1 is that referring to the upcoming game with SF? The line is closer to +7.

I got your message pretty clear you like the 49ers. Noted. And I did figure it was a technical play or situational play. And probably a pretty good one. I do think the line is at least fair at 7 and quite honestly Seattle may have earned enough respect here so far this year that I wouldn't want to lay 7 on it. It is game for 1st place, it is Harbaugh vs. Carroll and it is not a typical road trip or game with only a few days rest and the trip is just down the coast in the same time zone. It would almost seem Seattle would overlook NE to prepare for this game and yet they still beat NE! In SF's favour, I'm pretty sure they did overlook the Giants to prepare for this game. The math is holding now that a teaser can be opened and compared to last year I'm doing wonderfully on those this year. If they crack this line to 6.5 the math will be blown up on the teaser I suppose but I'll ride a little of your opinion here and call for the 49ers to at least rally and the get the win.

Sea covers 2/3 of their home games. They Cover 1/3 of their road games. Sea is a dead average team. Solid D. Bad O. Sf is a juggernaut team with a suspect Qb.....but Alex Smith is STILL 2 points better than Russel Wilson. Sea and SF, neither were looking ahead with their big games last week. Harbaugh is GREAT off a loss, his teams don't give up ONE TD in 16 quarters. Sea is AWFUL off a home win, then on the road. AWFUL. Sea off a phony win vs. Ne, they got killed most of it. Fluke Lucky plays (Brady red zone picks, 4th and 10 sea conversion late down 13). Sea off a cheat win vs. gb. Sea gonna get their asss kicked here. Nfc dogs 30-5 this year. 30-6 after THursday. But that 30-5 explains why $$$ isn't pouring onto SF.

Some compelling stats there. The Harbaugh trend with 16 qtrs of no TD is nice but they went 13-3 and they have a good team. If Mickey Mouse coaches a 13-3 team I think he does all right after losses. It just can't be allowed for me to be a trend that I follow unless I really know something about Harbaugh's coaching and why he would be good after losses. 4 games just isn't enough on a team that is a juggernaut I would expect an unbeaten record and ATS it is too few trials. The Seattle team trend is a longer term trend but I don't see the market missing this----especially sharp NFL bettors. What is more critical to the play is if SF is a juggernaut and Seattle is average. I think that part needs to be right in your analysis. I don't think the result of the Seattle/GB game is that relevant here. I don't think Seattle's power ratings change one bit whether that throw is ruled a TD or not. They played well most of the game and gave up one TD drive to Rodgers. I agree they didn't play that well against NE but they did seem to rattle Brady into a few of these mistakes. If Seattle were 2-4 I wonder how much different this line would be. I would think Seattle would have been the side for value if they were 2-4 assuming a line of 8-10 and I would think +10 would have been several stars on Seattle---even if SF coming off a loss. I think the situation then sets up with a lower line that Seattle is not a play but I doubt the line is low enough that SF is a clear cut best bet. I think if we can lay under 7 I'd be way more comfortable with the play----but probably not 4 stars.. I am comfortable with the teaser at least with a line close to 7 I'll allow a little room under but not much. Obviously you really like the 49ers but it seemed pretty clear to me there are the bets which are 4 stars which you can bet the other way on and have a profitable middle or scalp and then there are 4 star best bets which don't offer that opportunity. I think if you see 6.5 on this game the market is voting Seattle better than average team SF probably still very good. However, no doubt I am upgrading SF because of your selection on my own betting which is the point of this.

I've written I like to follow the TO Sun Sports with the Handle and he's on the 49ers tonight as well. Included in his write up was the discussion of the 49ers being angry, Harbaugh has been terrific after losses and the dessert is he mentions Seattle has covered 5 of their last 15 road games. It is always nice to get a fresh look at things....oh boy LOL. This game is a best bet for the Handle. I entered a few teasers not happy with the low limits so had to reach a little bit but Bodog has a good one with Cleveland +10 and Tampa Bay +10 with the 7 pt teaser. Perhaps some bargain will show on Seattle but I doubt it have to hope this wins.

I had to leap off most of my Texans bet. I like them but that doesn't have anything to do with it but I read Suggs may play this week. May not be true and one would figure his effectiveness won't be that high. I was hoping +7-105 but I can't take that chance now need to take a loss on the Texans in advance.

I'd thought I'd mention the Handle's best bets. Very similar to Fez. Handle solidly in the black at 17-13 up over 8 units in NFL so far. They both had 49ers. And the Handle is also on the Redskins and Bengals as best bets. He has a couple of others with Arizona and New England. I'm on the Redskins as well I was able to buy to 7 so I picked that one up. And I have some Bengals on teasers which is good and may add to it. I did stick a bet on Arizona at +7 increased juice. Not a big play. I guess the one play I don't really like is NE over the Jets. The line seems a little high there definitely rather lay 9.5 and maybe tease it down. I played Jets thought the line was too high but I'll cut my bet on the Jets to a small one. FWIW Handle although not best best is on the Rams and Colts as selections. I have bet the Rams myself. There won't be one sharp bettor not on the Rams. You can debate whether it is a big play, small play but it is a play. 6 was around early in the week. Bodog has a 6 or +6-115 even in the sharp lines. I haven't bet the Colts myself and am exposed to some Browns teasers but could just as soon bet back look for middle.