early NFL play wk 15

early NFL play wk 15 bal -1 -110 or better. i like this one large. early week teaser protection gives us a chance to get a right side at a bit of a discounted price, imo. expect the market to readjust and trickle back up as the week progresses.

that bal offense has serious issues; i'll probably be on NO

Baltimore should not be -1. There defense is out of shape

[QUOTE=sean1;35301]Baltimore should not be -1. There defense is out of shape[/QUOTE] Bal should definitely be favored. they have one of the best home field advantages in the league. That doesn't mean taking the Saints + points is the wrong play... but there's no way the Saints should be favored over the Ravens in Baltimore right now.

Totally disagree. Saints are rolling these days and Baltimore has not looked good the last few weeks. I'd make it NO -3

[QUOTE=sean1;35310]Totally disagree. Saints are rolling these days and Baltimore has not looked good the last few weeks. I'd make it NO -3[/QUOTE] I'm not arguing as to who you think will win and by how much, I am saying there is no way that the linesmakers would not open the line with Baltimore favored. In the last 2 years, Baltimore was a home dog just 1 time, to a 9-0 undefeated Colts team, who were just a 1 point favorite. And that was a 5-4 Ravens team. In fact, in the last 7 years, the Ravens have NEVER been a home dog unless they: 1. were playing an undefeated team or 2. had a losing record on the season So I'll continue to say, there is NO WAY linesmakers set this game to have Baltimore as a home dog. They set this line appropriately, in accordance with how they've always respected the Ravens at home, and they made no mistake here.

Thanks [QUOTE=sundown;35299]bal -1 -110 or better. i like this one large. early week teaser protection gives us a chance to get a right side at a bit of a discounted price, imo. expect the market to readjust and trickle back up as the week progresses.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the early heads up. I think this is an example of what you talked about in another thread. Early week line value. Thanks again.

[QUOTE=edsherpa;35312]Thanks for the early heads up. I think this is an example of what you talked about in another thread. Early week line value. Thanks again.[/QUOTE] ya. im usually talking about immediate openers ~5pm sunday when referring to early week line value. this one was open for about 3 hours before i played it. in this case, the market opened a solid 2.5 on baltimore. books that use teaser protection (protection against optimal teaser betting) have to make a decision on going to a soft 3 or a strong 1. in this case, they moved down to 1-108 (pinnacle) to protect against no+7.5 or better teasers. i figured the adjusted line at 1 should be much stronger than -108. in fact i see baltimore as a great play not only from a line value perspective at this level but also from an overall handicapping perspective.

[QUOTE=IceTea;35311]I'm not arguing as to who you think will win and by how much, I am saying there is no way that the linesmakers would not open the line with Baltimore favored. In the last 2 years, Baltimore was a home dog just 1 time, to a 9-0 undefeated Colts team, who were just a 1 point favorite. And that was a 5-4 Ravens team. In fact, in the last 7 years, the Ravens have NEVER been a home dog unless they: 1. were playing an undefeated team or 2. had a losing record on the season So I'll continue to say, there is NO WAY linesmakers set this game to have Baltimore as a home dog. They set this line appropriately, in accordance with how they've always respected the Ravens at home, and they made no mistake here.[/QUOTE] What the line should be and what the line actually is are two completely different items. Linemakers can't always put up the line they think it should be or they would get killed by the betting public. Here, as you say, if they made Baltimore a home dog they could take a blood bath on Baltimore money. The short favorite gives them a better shot of more even money on this game. I make the line -2 for Baltimore.

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;35321]What the line should be and what the line actually is are two completely different items. Linemakers can't always put up the line they think it should be or they would get killed by the betting public. Here, as you say, if they made Baltimore a home dog they could take a blood bath on Baltimore money. The short favorite gives them a better shot of more even money on this game. I make the line -2 for Baltimore.[/QUOTE] Exactly. If this game was played 100 times, the linesmakers would make Bal the home favorite 100 times at open. The fact that it's never happened in the last 7 years should tell you that N.O. would never be favored here at open, based on YTD records, linesmaker history, and public perception.