early NFL total We played Buff/Balt over 37.
I made the number 42 on this matchup.I am having a hard time figuring out how one can make a total 37 involving a team giving up 34.5 points in their last 4 games.Buffalo is coming off of a bye and has had more than a week to prepare a game plan for Balt.I rank Buff as the worst defense in the NFL. They have allowed over 200 yards rushing in their last three games ( even the Pats rushed for over 200 yds versus the Bills).In their last game versus Jacksonville,the Bills never forced the Jags to punt ( it is rare in the NFL for a punter to never take off his jacket).For the season,Buffalo's defense has only one interception ( an obvious correlation with a poor pass rush). The only real strength of the Bills is their kick return game with Spiller already having one kickoff return for a touchdown. Against the Ravens, the Bills should have plenty of kick off return opportunities.Conversely, Buffalo's kick coverage teams suck.In their last game versus Jax, the Jags averaged 36.4 yards on their four returns.A little known fact is that Bills' QB , Fitzpatrick, has thrown at least 2 touchdown passes in each of his last four starts.
Baltimore is pissed after blowing a 10 point third quarter lead versus the Pats yesterday.Local sportswriters are criticizing Harbaugh for "sitting on the lead." In the first three quarters, Flacco was 20 for 23 with 226 yards and 2 tds.The Ravens played it safe and threw only 4 passes to a wide receiver in the final 28 minutes of the Pats' game.After the game, Ray Lewis was quoted as saying," I would hate to be the Bills next week." I think that some of the Ravens' fans and players have been waiting for their highly rated offense to explode. Since this is their last home game before the bye week, I expect the Ravens to "pour it on" the defenseless Bills.Flacco has a qb rating of 107.6 in his home games and less than 100 in his road games.Baltimore has gone 4-1 OVER in their last 5 home games.When Baltimore plays against a "D level" rush defense (bottom quartile), they score more than 3 points over their season average.It looks like the weatherman is cooperating with an OVER bet. The current forecast for Sunday in Baltimore is partly cloudy with temps in the mid-60's.
In summary, the Ravens' offseason moves (Boldin and Houshmandzadeh etc)indicated a far more explosive offense than the 2009 Ravens.To date, we have not witnessed this offensive explosion.However, the team realizes that their conservative play calling may have cost them a win versus the Pats. They won't make the same mistake this week and may want to light up the scoreboard in front of their fans before the bye week.I would also add that betting over the Ravens' team total may be an +EV play on this matchup.
Good luck,
charliej
