early NFL total

thanks on what turned out to be an awesome totals call on the Over in the Balt game and than an awesome side call on the Bills by Fezzik, nice handicapping by both, worth the price of admission.

It looks like the books adjusted this week's opening NFL totals upward by about 1.5 points after yesterday's huge increase in scoring (50.8 points per game versus a season average of 42.2). I am still debating on whether this week's higher scoring was due to the enforcement of the league policy of helmet/helmet hits or if it was strictly "statistical noise." My raw numbers point out that there has been an upward adjustment to this week's numbers.My dilemma is now to decide whether I make a similar adjustment to my "final total" or if I treat last week's results simply as a small sample result and leave my numbers alone. I faced a similar dilemma when the NHL changed numerous rules to increase scoring. Initially, scoring increased in the NHL. However, experienced refs resorted to calling games like they did in the past. It was only after the NHL sent out a memo and threatened suspensions that the older refs start calling the games like the NHL wanted. Any input or opinions would be appreciated regarding the impact on scoring (or lack of impact) of the NFL's new mandate regarding "dangerous hits." Thanks, charliej

I think the defensive players being more cautious had A LOT to do with it. In addition, there were also a craploa of turnovers yesterday that gave short fields for many scores.

Thanks, Shooter. Your points are valid and appreciated.

I am guessing that if the overs dominate again this week, regardless of reason, that unders will be the way to go the week following, because a) opening lines will be adjusted upward again and b) more people will recognize the trend and blindly bet the overs. Also, my guess is certain types of defenses will be hurt more by this than others. If you can identify which are which, then there will be some opportunities there because invariably ALL lines will be adjusted, even if it's not always relevant because of the teams involved. For example, playing against a team that runs a lot, the effect should be less noticeable because those big hits happen a lot on pass attempts. In addition, inaccurate passers are more likely to see their team benefit because the punishment won't be as severe for those WRs.