[QUOTE=Fezzik;29212]Oregon State is not in the same class as Arizona, I have them 4.5 points different.
The spot is bad for Oregono. BIG game vs. Boise, then Pac10 opener tough game vs. ASU at home, while Az worked on their tans....now the Pacific NW heads to the Desert where they typically get their butts kicked (climate never helps) if they are the inferior team, which they most certainly are.
Az beat IOWA. Az is the better team, in the better spot. PASS[/QUOTE]
Fez -
As always this is your board and I am extremely appreciative of all the constructive feedback you provide. My goal is to contribute and share my perspective about the Pac 10 and European soccer.
That being said, my rationale for this line is I have Oregon St and Arizona about even on a neutral field and gave 4.5 points for the home edge to the Wildcats. As a long time Pac 10 follower and handicapper, October has seen Stoops and the Wildcats go in a starkly different direction than Coach Riley's Oregon St. side. Last three years (2007-Current) Arizona's record in October is a pedestrian 6-6, while Riley and Ore St. are 10-1 (loss to USC 42-36 Oct. 09). So when it comes to making adjustments through out the season, Riley and the Beavers have an undeniable edge in this regard.
I'm impressed with the depth Oregon St. showed last against ASU. Their receiving corps by committee now will see James Rodgers return and give Arizona's 2nd ranked defense something to think about.
The game against ASU was impressive as they lead throughout following an early 7-3 deficit. They really managed to control the line of scrimmage and pressure ASU's QB Threet (recording 6 sacks) and displayed more offensive prowess than their 99th national ranking suggests (this is largely attributable to them facing the nations 1rst and 3rd ranked defenses in TCU and Boise St.)
Arizona is no slouch and I respect them, but your weather play of Northwest teams suffering when visiting the desert needs further scrutiny. It's not the second week of September when the temps are a searing 110 as seen by Iowa, it's a 5 pm kick off in mid October against an Arizona side who has some offensive question marks on their own. I've followed Senior RB Nicolas Grigsby (avg. 60 yards a game) since his freshman year and he simply doesn't have the kind of game-breaking speed or pedigree that will keep AZ quarterback Nick Goles from being able to effectively use play action passing like TCU and Boise St.
My over/under for sacks against 'Zona in this game is 5 while, on the other side, Ore St has done a very respectable job of protecting QB Katz and the ball (no turnovers in 2010 and only 5 sacks combined conceded on hostile road fixtures against TCU and Boise St).
I completely agree with you on the bye dynamic being a huge support for Arizona to work out some offensive kinks, but getting 9 points with an Oregon St side who is playing better each week, against a team with several offensive question marks, has yet to turn the ball over THIS YEAR, and excels in October against a team who regresses in the same month is simply too tempting a proposition.
