Early Pac-10 Plays

USC/Stanford Hey John, I had to leave the meeting early to scoop up my kids from the nanny. What was your take at the meeting with USC @ Stanford? What was the general consensus? Thanks!

[QUOTE=flipper;29313]Hey John, I had to leave the meeting early to scoop up my kids from the nanny. What was your take at the meeting with USC @ Stanford? What was the general consensus? Thanks![/QUOTE] Leon was on Stanford and played it right at the open. It's been bet up to 10 and I think the line is moving in the right direction based on the situation involved with the two teams. Concerns voiced by both Nick and myself were laying double digits to a USC side which will probably have the most draft picks of any team in the Pac 10 next April. Also USC is very good at running the football with an amazingly balanced and speedy backfield. This is the only Pac 10 game I have no action on b/c I can see this playing out is a lot of ways but I think Leon is on the right side...

[QUOTE=Twoniner;29285]It's going to be interesting to watch. Arizona has some amazing adjusted yards per play numbers which is a huge driver, but the Oregon State in season improvement angle is very real almost every year as well. Dr. Bob was against Oregon State last week with ASU, Looking at the numbers I gotta believe he is also coming with Arizona Thursday. I took some Arizona -6.5 -130 yesterday to lighten up on my Oregon State.[/QUOTE] Take out the Toledo and Citadel results and the adjusted yards per play diminishes significantly.

??? [QUOTE=costar;29244]By game time John, 10 or 10' will be available i'd imagine - home team in this one will be smashed of the boards will end up going through the ten .....[/QUOTE] Line is now 7 and if you still think this goes to 10 or 10 1/2 could be a good middle. What are your current thoughts??

[QUOTE=Twoniner;29285]It's going to be interesting to watch. Arizona has some amazing adjusted yards per play numbers which is a huge driver, but the Oregon State in season improvement angle is very real almost every year as well. Dr. Bob was against Oregon State last week with ASU, Looking at the numbers I gotta believe he is also coming with Arizona Thursday. I took some Arizona -6.5 -130 yesterday to lighten up on my Oregon State.[/QUOTE] Twoniner - The game is now down to a solid seven (Pinny showing 'Zona -7 -1.06) and I have to believe there will be a little bit of take back here on Arizona, but believe we have largely found our number for game time. I'm doing nothing with my play and have no plans of hedging. But dont' get me wrong as it's always nice to at least have the option b/c the line move went in your favor. Clearly the value of +9 vs. plus seven is pretty large as now you only push with a 7 point loss by Ore St...We'll see what happens...

[QUOTE=johnnetto;29203]These games have been on Pinny for all of 15 minutes: 364 Washington Pick'em -1.05 over ASU - 2 Unit (I made the game 2.5) 385 Oregon St. +9 -1.05 over Arizona - 4 Unit (I made the game 4.5) Write ups to follow but the key now is to be early and aggressive...[/QUOTE] Potential 1rst round draft pick Vontaze Burfict has been benched for ASU and will not be starting in the game against Washington. How long he stays out of the game is another matter but this is a big benefit for the Husky offense as Burfict is a beast, but shows little discipline, a representation of the ASU side which finds itself amongst the most turnover prone and penalized teams in the Pac 10... [url]https://www.azcentral.com/sports/asu/articles/2010/10/05/20101005arizona-state-football-burfict-benched.html[/url]

The question on whether a teaser is a legit option with Az -7 is not a ridiculous one as some might tell you. At that pointspread you might check the best moneyline you can get and if there is nothing below -300 than using AZ in a teaser down to -1 is a legit option. It's a close call at the moment but with the way Az line keeps leaking down I would wait till a 6.5 shows and just take that. If it reverses and the 7 becomes tough to find you can consider sticking the rogue -7 into some teasers IF 7.5 is the market number.

[QUOTE=frankb22;29347]The question on whether a teaser is a legit option with Az -7 is not a ridiculous one as some might tell you. At that pointspread you might check the best moneyline you can get and if there is nothing below -300 than using AZ in a teaser down to -1 is a legit option. It's a close call at the moment but with the way Az line keeps leaking down I would wait till a 6.5 shows and just take that. If it reverses and the 7 becomes tough to find you can consider sticking the rogue -7 into some teasers IF 7.5 is the market number.[/QUOTE] Thanks so much for your insight Frank. You are very adept at these things and I appreciate you taking the time out to offer your insight...

lee Sterling on the radio today said ASU will win and the wrong team is Favored between UW and ASU

[QUOTE=larryphelps;29425]lee Sterling on the radio today said ASU will win and the wrong team is Favored between UW and ASU[/QUOTE] I have a lot of respect for Lee as he has proven what an amazing handicapper he is.