[QUOTE=bobbyt1962;2988]i have never met a subject i couldn't google. until now.[/QUOTE]
From Fezzik's article:
Here is the simple Eight of Clubs winning system.
Every Tuesday, write down all the football lines, sides and totals, for the ensuing weekend on a sheet of paper. Place the list in an envelope and lock it up. On Saturday, open up the envelope and compare the updated lines to those on your sheet of paper. One hour before kickoff on any game where the side or total has moved up by two or more points, fade the steam and come over the top playing the other side, taking the underdog (or the under) with an extra two plus points in your pocket versus the midweek line.
It's key here to fade line moves only on favorites and overs, as these tend to be the "square" moves in the market. Suspect sports services and recreational bettors love to fire their money in on favorites and overs and it’s these bets you want to fade, not those of the dialed-in pro syndicates.
First let me give you an example of the latter, or what not to do. Last year the Idaho Vandals were 11-point home underdogs against the Lousiana Tech Bulldogs. Skillful bettors recognized that the Bulldogs were in a very bad spot, as they had just traveled West the game before, playing at Utah State. They pounded the line down from -11 to -8 on Tech. However, this was “smart money” betting an ugly duckling underdog. No recreational bettor was going to bet on Idaho, famous potatoes or not, and there was no reason to think Tech was attractive even at -8. The line moved toward the underdog. Pass.
Contrast this to a typical chalk-eating game, where everyone and his uncle is laying the points. In 2004, Oregon was a -6 favorite versus an inferior UCLA team. Oregon was a huge favorite-play for recreational players and for some big-name tout services. At -6, a bet on Oregon at kickoff would have had some merit. But at the closing line of -9.5, it was just plain foolish. This represented a 3.5-point move toward the favorite and qualified for a bet with the Eight of Clubs system. Oregon lost outright.
To give yourself the best chance to come out a winner with this technique, aggressively shop for even better lines (than the first good one you see) and the lowest vigorish, as well.
