Fez Week9 Thread, 1st 4 weighted College Play

Fez Week9 Thread, 1st 4 weighted College Play 314 ARMY +7.5-120. Aok to play +7-110. OPF THE CHART great situational spot. I am having trouble finding anything I even like this week, but this one just stands out as a great bet.

426 EAGLES -3 +100 2 weight Very good spot.

372 tcu utah UN23 2 weight 2nd hlf..............

Clear to me I'm wasting my time with College Football Sides vs. Market numbers. Next year I likely stop playing College Sides vs. W.A. numbers here on 10/1. I really couldn't find any bet I even liked this week midweek, and the one bet I loved was a clear wrong side loser (Af no byes, traveling East, early start time, vs. Army basically off bye and VMI). Further, the guys I know aren't coming up with anything solid also.......in fact a bunch of games with 2 guys on differeing sides. What is amazing to me is how easy it is for me to pick off 'soft' NFL numbers despite it being the 'toughest' sport to beat. But College post 10/1 W.A sides has just become a complete waste of time.....sure, a few good bets Sunday night there, and always some good 2nd halves, but even the totals have dried up. Off to greener pastures for me......I apologize for the lemon on Army.....loved the spot, I really thought it was the best bet of the week. Don't expect any more College sides unless I have a clear cut fade of a top team the public has fallen in love with. I know College Football is WAY more beatable than the NFL......BUT.....It is clear to me that my expertise is light year's better in the NFL and I'm spending 70% of my handicapping time on College and finding nothing but garbage vs. W.A. lines. Perhaps after a few summers of research, I will look back and realize how bad my college capping was...... It is frustrating to me what has happened with totals. Just three years ago Charlie and I were hitting 60% nailing game after game after game off by 4 points........even in November.

I might with a group every Tuesday, one of the shapest guys is 47% ATS I listen to (and I also) argue with each other about the right sides. While we all should be working on 2nd half models or CBB or NBA totals........ A horrific use of time in November.

Everyone I know that has beat college football in past seasons is having a winning season once again. As for the 47% guy I assume you are talking about Tim. Every week I see his sides I think to myself what is this guy thinking this year, his game is way off, so many wrong sides that other sharps are on the opposite side. Anyone betting the majority of their sides on Friday morning is going to lose unless your name is BW.

I monitor four forums and tail a few cappers I respect. Two cappers who know their stuff and are up about 25 units each have significantly reduced their plays the last 3-4 weeks and have broken about even or lost overall on them. Think both had Org St -6 and not only did they lose, they got a bad number which they never did early in the year. As for this play, I played it light just because it was a 4 weight but I thought it overlooked the fact that Air Force's number 1 goal this year was to win the CIC Trophy and they needed to beat Army today to achieve that. That along with the fact they've played pretty well this year and had lost 3 in a row (with their four losses being to Okl, TCU, Utah and SDSU), told me they would be very up for this game no matter the other situational factors in Army's favor - the academies place a ton of prestige with regard to the CIC Trophy. But thought Army 7' was very solid - when we kicked the two FG's to start the game vs getting TD's felt we'd likely be in trouble.

i follow several as well, ER, Football Jesus and RAS have all had MANY plays like fez in sept ..alot less in NOV concentrating on NBA

[QUOTE=Fezzik;31744]314 ARMY +7.5-120. Aok to play +7-110. OPF THE CHART great situational spot. I am having trouble finding anything I even like this week, but this one just stands out as a great bet.[/QUOTE] Did you ever think of giving Hockey a look? seems like a rather fresh market you could attack after some research.

BIg Richie is the 47% guy. AND he was the guy that had one of the best track records in our meeting of anyone the last 5 years!. The key is that NO ONE is getting any value out there from midweek lines. Five years ago, we would get consensus after consensus Tuesday, bet the games, watch the line moves our way and win. Don't get me wrong. Winning as a bettor really isn't very difficult. BUT......winning vs. widely available midweek and later numbers has become very, very difficult. Sure.......with -102 options left and right, it isn't much of a sweat to win in your betting, ditto with ingame wagering, halftime wagering, etc. BUT.......the guys that I know that were able to NAIL game after game that would move 3 points plus are blundering/stumbling out there...... OR ST -5? Closer -4. LOSER! MIZZO -4! Ok....at least it closed -5.5. LOSER! Even the 'right sides' A+M +3.5, HA hahahah up to 4.5 it goes. And RAS laughs his ass off at the square sharp donks we are trying to beat Kasparov at Chess.......while he pounds some 16 year old at checkers. I am having a good betting year, but it is not lost on me that I've gone from having a very clear edge vs. Sept numbers to largely wasting my time and bashing my head against the wall.........there simply isn't enough hours for me to do what I need to do with all the NFL work/other sport work/accounting/managing stuff/running around cashing/betting tickets playing GOYS/meeting with helpers/more accounting/in game wagering/contest after contest after contest/righting an aritcle a week/focusing on 2nd half wagers/checking weather/checking injuries........ seriously to do it RIGHT you really need to 1. PICK 1 sport 2. Sit ON YOUR ASS and don't go out and just handicap it 40-80 hours 3. Get someone else to bet it for you ..........That model works great. But try to do everything, and I think it is almost impossible to succeed vs. W.Available lines. A bettor will win since while he runs around he is going to see so many great bets here and there, live and online, he cannot help but succeed.......AND with the lower juice options out there. Heck La Tech +1.5 then Fresno +134 as an example. Or OR-35/The Other guys +38. BUT.........as for sharps winning I get recommendation on Team A -3 "A great bet" and then team B +3.5 "Great value" in College Football. Argggggh. Figure out a way to get -2.5 -110 and +3.5 +100 and all is good........but lay -110 each side, and you are going to get pounded. Re: Hockey, I agree but 1. I hate it 2. No experience/expertise 3. Little market liquidity, no real rogue numbers..... I will say I love what Alf has been doing in the College market........some great finds early/etc.