Fez Week9 Thread, 1st 4 weighted College Play

I'm biased, but I'm certain we have the best sports gambling site in the world. You have access to someone like me who makes a very good living gambling full-time. I am open and honest about how to win betting on sports and other areas. The right way to use this board is to read and learn and develop your game. The wrong way is to solely get 'picks' and bet them and expect to win. You DO have a great handicapper in Alf who is basically giving away his plays every week here. Contrast that to guys with 1/2 his talent charging 1,000/season. AND you have numerous other sharps openly sharing plays (too many to mention). The best way to use me right now is clearly in my NFL opinions, and in optimal betting questions/advice. I'm giving away the store here telling all where to focus in order to win. Vs. every 'handicapper' out there talking about what great 'value' all their plays have, never mind the betting board in mind boggling difficult to beat in November in Football. I could post my Tuesday meeting 'consensus' plays everyone likes right now, I think they would lose.....the game is too difficult to beat -110 right now without high level analysis. As a three time NFL handicapping world champion, all of those due solely to my NFL plays, I will stand by my NFL opinion being as good as they come. And my NFL plays have been rock solid this year. Further, since I am only going to do NFL the rest of the year for pure handicapping, I expect we will do well down the stretch. I won a 4th contest (MOney Talks) due to the NFL and some great Totals, working with Charlie J. Charlie would be the 1st to tell all you, he isn't getting the bets he got last year, and he isn't working anything material right now with College Football totals.....I WILL Say his NFL totals have been great this year. In August I expected to have about 10 college football totals off by 3 points each week to choose from Wednesday. Uh-oh, by 10/5 I have 2 1 or 0!! Well....when the going gets tough, I can tell you, I go where the fish are, and MOVE ON to more beatable seas. I'm still debating whether next year to do any active college football handicapping, or just to do it in September. One thing rest assured, I have always been a futures specialist, and we are looking to go 6-0 on my futures 'picks' this year, and I fully expect to find 3-8 football futures in 2011 to post......... More and more in our discussions I tell all for each game "PASS......the line is right". The easier way to win at this is through clever derivative betting, halftimes, props, team totals, etc.

Obviously the guys that are complaining and want their "44 cents back" don't understand the value they are getting here. There is more information here to make you a better bettor than I have ever found anywhere and, while I have yet to contribute, I am quietly working on some tech stuff that may work real well. To those of thems that wants their bucks back, perhaps buying picks from Stu Feiner might be where you want to put your money. Or go legit and buy RAS. Ingrates.

There are half a dozen to a dozen "guys" that post winners here regularly. While you may have purchased the subscription for Steve's picks, I hope you didn't buy them for just his College football picks. Just read the other rest of the board and figure out who can help you make money. It was refreshing for Steve to say he was struggling and that it was better for him to stop then to continue when he didn't feel he had any edge. Winning is a year around effort solely relying on CBB is a mistake.

Ok you sold me I will stick with it. I am not crying I just want results for my $$$. Thanks

Results?? [QUOTE=skutch07;32212]Ok you sold me I will stick with it. I am not crying I just want results for my $$$. Thanks[/QUOTE] Not sure what you mean by results. As stated NUMEROUS times, this is not a picks site. It is a forum to discuss angles, results, pose questions etc. As also stated earlier, if you are just looking for picks try one of the touts. There are some good ones out there for people looking for just picks. And as for $$$, it is probably less than the vig on one of your bets. Imagine if Fezz, Alf or any of the other experts on here charged you just for giving some of their insight and charged by the hour.

To echo Fezz's comments, we averaged 12 CFB totals plays per week over the past 2 seasons. I look for a 3 point disparity from my number to trigger a play.Last week, I found only two CFB totals with a 3 point variance ( with 52 lined games on the card). It is frustrating to put in so much work and find so few plays. I am winding down my work on CFB totals and spending time updating my NBA model. I changed my handicapping strategy with NFL totals and am having my best winning percentage season in years. It is amazing how betting markets in certain sports are changing so quickly.As a totals handicapper, I need to change my strategy constantly or my bankroll will suffer greatly. I have to realize that I must work harder and accept the fact that I will have fewer plays. charliej

Every Week, I send Charlie an email "No more hockey/college football." GIMME MORE NBA TOTALS!@!

[QUOTE=Fezzik;32199]I could post my Tuesday meeting 'consensus' plays everyone likes right now, I think they would lose.....the game is too difficult to beat -110 right now without high level analysis.[/QUOTE] Even posting those leans with a caveat that you may not ultimately play any of em would be helpful. Any content that reflects how people, esp proven winners, are thinking is valuable IMO. As subscribers, we can do as we wish with the info. Some might compare it to their own thoughts, compare the early leans with line moves to gauge and assess the market, etc. So yes, I agree that the only source of value from the site isn't just your picks, and I would still subscribe if you cut down on picks or your picks lost. But I think continuing to post thoughts is helpful. For example, I like knowing that you valued the situational angles in the AF/Army game as highly as you did (4 weight). Seeing that and the line move tells me something. That info can be used profitably in ways other than coattailing. See also your large play on ark st vs. louisville a few weeks ago. When the market initially reacted and later bounced back, that said a lot. Your opinions affect the marketplace so a saavy player will analyze all information and where it's coming from in order to find their own winners. Like poker, this isn't a static endeavor (if I just keep doing X over and over, I will win). One has to constantly be assessing their own methods and leaks as well as others'. If someone has no original thought and cannot evaluate information other than "this guy is good so I will follow blindly wherever he will lead me," they will still find a way to lose even if you post 55-60% winners.

As Fez was saying, there's also a lot of value in reading his advice/comments even after his losses. I know many people just get frustrated and move on when they tail and lose, but that doesn't put you in a position to win in the future. IMO, Fez's honest and candid self-reflection/analysis regarding WHY he lost the games he did and the adjustments he plans to make in the future are what make him successful. Not many cappers have that kind of humility and as a subscriber, you get to catch a glimpse of the development process in becoming a consistent winner. Obviously, I'm not foolish enough to think that he posts everything he thinks...but there are definitely concepts one can glean from his posts that everyone can apply to their own methodologies.

I have my own models that I now use but as I was developing the models the last thing I wanted was someone saying just play so and so. No matter how good they were, if they passed away tomorrow or stopped providing picks, I was no better off for the long run. In my mind, you want someone who provides an education into why they are playing something. Getting this knowledge serves you well for the long run because if you learn enough, you won't need them any more. Use this site to learn the fundamentals for becoming a winner not to get picks that may or may not win this year. Help yourself for the long run. You'll be much better off.