Fezzik, College Football Wk1 picks thread, 136 Ohio St-28, 2 weight

Sorry, 1 more play 194 GA -27 Line is moving, still -26.5 at CRIS.... Aok to lay -27, I'm worried we will lose too much value if we wait on this added game.

Fezzik, aren't you concerned with your model has a favorite bias if it has you laying the heavy wood on a disproportionate number of games?

[QUOTE=IrishTim;24918]Fezzik, aren't you concerned with your model has a favorite bias if it has you laying the heavy wood on a disproportionate number of games?[/QUOTE] I think it's more of a case of CRIS trying to make their lines a bit "too sharp" and them shading a lot of their lines low. A Texas -24 opener vs Rice is kinda damning evidence. And from a situational standpoint week 1 offers the least amount of bad spots for big favorites. No sandwich spots and everyone is excited for week 1, even if there is a bigger game on deck.

[QUOTE=Twoniner;24923]I think it's more of a case of CRIS trying to make their lines a bit "too sharp" and them shading a lot of their lines low. A Texas -24 opener vs Rice is kinda damning evidence. And from a situational standpoint week 1 offers the least amount of bad spots for big favorites. No sandwich spots and everyone is excited for week 1, even if there is a bigger game on deck.[/QUOTE] Perhaps. That could certainly be the case. Just something for Fezzik and everyone to look out for.

I have no concerns at all, in the past I was heavily criticized for playing only dogs My number on these games are for most part 'right'. CRIS's numbers were off. I don't like any team week1, I just make the 'correct' number, and spot the differences. Top teams at home playing crappy teams should be laying 36, not 28. And they do just fine ATS laying the 36. Long story short, last year Oklahoma was playing close to home vs a top 25 proven BYU team........and laying 24! THIS YEAR, Oklahoma is playing AT HOME vs. a sorry ass Utah State team that is collecting a paycheck. FURTHER this year, Oklahoma is a 'mission team' a perennial top 10 team off a horrendous 8-5 year. As we all know, these teams ANNHILATE their week1 opponents. in 2006 Okla was 'down' losing 2 games, and their bowl in the famous Boise game. They beat NT 79-3 -40 to open the next year. WITH Mia fl on deck! IN 2007, Oka was 'down' losing 2 games and their Bowl to W Virg. IN 2008, they then beat Chat 57-2 (covering) and Cincy 52-26 (covering). In 2009 after they donked away their season to BYU, they beat Idaho St 64-0, and then Tulsa 45-0. WHen this team is angry, they DESTROY bad opponents. WOODSHED coming. Of course, Utah State does have good 8 starters back on O, including gifted Skill position players including their two top receiving yards guys, Morrison and Turbin. Uh-oh. NEver mind. Make that 6 O starters back. No Turbin. No Morrison. Okl might look ahead to FSU. But after a year of frustration, my experience is that these mission teams DESTROY opponents. And frankly, even off good years, these top programs DESTROY opponents. See USC........every year during the 2000s to open the season.

Point taken, Fezz. How do you come up with your numbers? MLR model, some sort of power ratings based on last season's lines/scores, etc.?

5 sets of power ratings. I make up mine. I have Phil Steele's. I also have 3 handicappers I respect. I take a weighted average. NOTE: This is an approach I have just taken to a much higher level......in the past I was much more a market analyst, and I've grown tired of not knowing what the pure "power ratings" number should be..........no such problems in 2010.

Phil Steele does a magnificient job gathering the information. Analyzying it, uh, I'm not so sure.

206 TT -12.5 vs. smu, 2 weight June Junes: Good coach. But this game still closes North of 14..

Thanks for the plays---refresh my memory--unless otherwise indicated are plays are 1 weight?