Fezzik Hilton

Censorship? Are you joking? We opened this board to get away from snarky waste-of-time I'm-great-and-you're-not posts just like the ones that were deleted. I'm not explaining it any further, other than to say that you can respond to this statement intelligently, leave it completely alone, or find another place with people who don't mind having their time wasted.

[QUOTE=goose148900;12070]OS-quick question. would you rather be able to predict movement on a consistent basis OR have the handicapping ability to formulate math models? yes, it's a general question but imho, very, very few successful gamblers can do both. most that think they can do one can't even do it very well. fez's contest success isn't a great secret. he does play them well but there are so many that play poorly. it's similar to a bj tourney when the sharps are betting table minimum n the squares bet half their stack on the first hand. a much more interesting contest would be to take five games/week vs pinny's closing lines. i understand there are logisitical issues but there should be a way to get it done.[/QUOTE] It's more complicated than chosing one or the other. If the market if efficient, and I think it is, then handicapping is crucial to predicting line movement. Almost all handicappers, both those who use math models and old school handicappers, overestimate their edge vs the sharp internet lines. When Fezzik (clearly one of the sharpest gamblers) said a couple of years ago: "it's clobbering time!", I asked: do you think you will beat 54% vs Pinny's line? 54% is right about the top % a handicapper can do over thousands of bets. Yes, there will be hot streaks, but all of us have some very cold spells. Add it all up, very few can hit 54%. However, there are always some rogue/stale lines out there, both in LV and from locals. Hit those harder than your handicapped plays at Pinny. If I had to choose one, I would take predicting line moves. Not glamorous, but +EV year after year.

[QUOTE=Old School;12117] ...When Fezzik (clearly one of the sharpest gamblers) said a couple of years ago: "it's clobbering time!"....,[/QUOTE] you can call fezzik a winning sports bettor but careful on the sharp gambler moniker. fez has said something to the effect that bj is a waste of time and he doesn't think horses can be beat w/o a rebate. he also didn't (and might still not) believe craps can be beaten w/dice control

Fezzik knows gambling through and through. I can think of reasons to back up everything you've just mentioned. Dice, for example. Maybe it can be done by a very select few, but do you honestly think this is something that will yield returns comparable with other opportunities in this field? I know of several who've investigated and abandoned it just for that reason.

Goose is a funny guy 1. I believe Dice Control is viable, but difficult 2. I know horses can be beaten, I just think most of it is exotics and info. about phony races. 3. 21 is a waste of MY time, I know people can make good money at it. 4. Poker has got to be the easiest way to make money of any game however. I will say it is AMAZING to me that every 21/horse/poker 'pro' I know seems to A. Talk about how great they are doing, BUT B. Always winds up broke or close to it...... I attribute this often to a lack of experience living a normal life/normal budget. Nothing like learning to live on 30k/year for 5 years to help someone learn basic life skills. I do have to laugh at Goose questioning me being a sharp gambler. I make 2.7bb/100 hands playing online 2/3, 3/6,5/10. I'm making over 50% ROI playing online tournaments. I am one of the sharpest sports bettors out there. I can count cards, and no big deal, but at a bj21.com party I think they clocked me at a less than stellar 21 seconds for a deck countdown. I play 9/6 vidoe poker for promos and know the strategy. I am connected. I lknow about Coupons. I know how people can win at dice, hole carding, wheel tracking, etc. And Goose questions me being a 'sharp gambler'. Uh ok.......I'm sure there are people with overall better gambling resumues across all games, but based on his definition, I guess maybe there are 3-15 sharp gamblers in the entire world (Grosjean, etc) ...... ps. Saints -8.5 was on that Hilton card, line was 10 everywhere all week long........

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12128]1. I believe Dice Control is viable, but difficult 2. I know horses can be beaten, I just think most of it is exotics and info. about phony races. 3. 21 is a waste of MY time, I know people can make good money at it. 4. Poker has got to be the easiest way to make money of any game however. I will say it is AMAZING to me that every 21/horse/poker 'pro' I know seems to A. Talk about how great they are doing, BUT B. Always winds up broke or close to it...... I attribute this often to a lack of experience living a normal life/normal budget. Nothing like learning to live on 30k/year for 5 years to help someone learn basic life skills. I do have to laugh at Goose questioning me being a sharp gambler. I make 2.7bb/100 hands playing online 2/3, 3/6,5/10. I'm making over 50% ROI playing online tournaments. I am one of the sharpest sports bettors out there. I can count cards, and no big deal, but at a bj21.com party I think they clocked me at a less than stellar 21 seconds for a deck countdown. I play 9/6 vidoe poker for promos and know the strategy. I am connected. I lknow about Coupons. I know how people can win at dice, hole carding, wheel tracking, etc. And Goose questions me being a 'sharp gambler'. Uh ok.......I'm sure there are people with overall better gambling resumues across all games, but based on his definition, I guess maybe there are 3-15 sharp gamblers in the entire world (Grosjean, etc) ...... ps. Saints -8.5 was on that Hilton card, line was 10 everywhere all week long........[/QUOTE] well done laying off the 8.5. that 9 n 9.5 can be incredibly valuable. for years, you said card counting was a waste of everyone's time and you have said you're a life time loser at it and blamed cheating for most it. frankly, if you think you're being cheated the sharps know it almost immediately. all in all, from april to august with ur br, you're prolly better off playing bj than poker (at least at the stakes you're playing). there are far more than 15 sharps out there but prolly less than 200. to say there are only 15 shows just how connected you really are. i'm also interested in just who these 21/horse/poker pros you know that are completely broke or close to it. the ones i know are doing just fine. how many tournaments are included in this sample size and how many on-line hands played? not saying you can't win b/c you might be able to. just curious. also, i've had a standing offer out there for three years now-anytime you want to play a freeze out let me know. i also highly disagree about poker being the easiest game for most people. although profitable, there is much better out there. finally, as to the normal life/normal budget comment, there is credence to that but remember, you can't take $$ with you to either the 3rd or 4th circle. enjoy it while you're here. the millonaire next door has some good advice but it also sounds like he lives one boring sorry ass life. every now n then it's not a bad idea to get a penthouse suite with three hookers in the hot tub.

[QUOTE=anthony;12115]Censorship? Are you joking? We opened this board to get away from snarky waste-of-time I'm-great-and-you're-not posts just like the ones that were deleted. I'm not explaining it any further, other than to say that you can respond to this statement intelligently, leave it completely alone, or find another place with people who don't mind having their time wasted.[/QUOTE] I posted something to the effect of, in reference to Goose's post about dice, horse racing, etc, that Fezzik seems to believe that if he can't beat something, it isn't beatable. I.e. Fezzik has posted at length that betting MLB is a waste of time and it isn't beatable. My post contained no insults or snark whatsoever, and it has since been deleted. If Fezzik wants a private playground where he's the dictator and nothing critical can be said of him, fine, but call a spade a spade.

Hilton really tightened up Fezzik won his two swing plays vs. Truschel, and they are both tied at 43 for first place, and each has SF pending. Ronin will get to 43 with a NYG cover Mike Boyd 1 is at 43, but has AZ pending. did not go through the rest of the list, but it's gonna be tight down the rest of the way...good luck Fezzik

The funny thing about this thread I'm told "Fezzik thinks if he cannot win at it, no one can". Great cappers beat EVERY game. MLB, WNBA, etc. I say MLB is a waste of time FOR MOST people, for a variety of reasons, but not all. Ditto for ALL games. I'm remarkably flexible for a guy who is accused of the opposite. I believe in Wheel Tracking, etc. I believe in Horse betting, I do. Goose, you suffer from what you accuse me of, IMO. Just because you have ups and downs in Poker does not mean all of us do. I started playing the game in 2005, you knew me in 2007, it's 2010, and my game is good. You can talk, talk, talk, but ANYTIME you want to compare my online longterm results (at times using methods you have laughed at) to yours, let's do it. I think the comparison would be rather embarrasing to you. I DO agree my 21 game simply must be poor (Hell, look at my 20 year break even results), but my poker is beyond solid, and my game is going to take a lightning bolt up this Spring when I actually start using things like Poker Tracker. You say I'm not a sharp gambler. I simply say show me 30 guys in this world with an overall higher overall edge/competency/win amounts over multiple games. The irony is that when I worked with many other people in the past, they all talked about how good certain people were, how they were gettig connected info, etc. Yet how often did these other 'experts' make me money on my off days? How often did these other guys "step up" and do great in a contest I was tanking in? ANSWER: NOT OFTEN!!!! WHAT WAS AMAZING as how some of these 'really good' guys who 'hit 57% of their bets' never seemed to win when I was given a piece of their portfolios. Henry at Pinnacle summed it up best "Fez, every time I go to lunch, we go from winning $5,000/hour to losing $2,000 per hour". I do want to offer up an apology to David Matthews, who cut me in on 20% of his Blackjack tourney winnings, and the man GOT IT DONE, winning the 250k World Championship that year.

[QUOTE=skrtelfan;12185]I posted something to the effect of, in reference to Goose's post about dice, horse racing, etc, that Fezzik seems to believe that if he can't beat something, it isn't beatable. I.e. Fezzik has posted at length that betting MLB is a waste of time and it isn't beatable. My post contained no insults or snark whatsoever, and it has since been deleted. If Fezzik wants a private playground where he's the dictator and nothing critical can be said of him, fine, but call a spade a spade.[/QUOTE] No such post was deleted. As I've indicated, the deleted posts were off-topic and did not belong. Your comment represents an opinion relative to an ongoing discussion. If your original had been deleted, this would have been too.