Fezzik Hilton, J E T S JETS< JETS JETS

[QUOTE=mrbowling300;11218]Fezzik, I'm curious to know in the Hilton, do they let you submit the one pick for tonight, and then you come back Saturday and finish your card, or are you required to submit all your picks tonight, because you had a play tonight? Thx![/QUOTE] No! If you are picking a game on Thursday, you have to put all your picks in for the week. In my entries, I took the Falcons+4.5, Redskins +10, Browns +13, and Giants +2.5. The Giants are my second biggest pick this week. Big suck in on the Cowboys. They do shit in December and so does Romo! my second entry has the Jets -3, Jaguars PK, Skins +10, Seahags PK, and Giants +2.5

[QUOTE=mrbowling300;11217]I cannot tell you how much us Detroiters HATE listening to Matt Millen. I bet the rest of the country doesn't care one way or another, but this guy has absolutely ZERO credibility with me about any opinions about players he expresses. What does this guy know about talent? His track record with the Detroit Lions proves the point. He set this franchise back far back, we will be at least 5 years away from any type of credibility. BTW, Pat Summerall, when doing the voice overs for who the sponsors are sounds drunk![/QUOTE] Matt Millen commentary was the reason he was hired by the Lions in the first place. He was a very good analyst than and things haven't changed now. I agree he blew as a GM but he's better than most on the air.

[QUOTE=roughrider39;11230]Matt Millen commentary was the reason he was hired by the Lions in the first place. He was a very good analyst than and things haven't changed now. I agree he blew as a GM but he's better than most on the air.[/QUOTE] You are correct. But his reputation as the Lion's GM far outweighs his commentary. I think I got him confused with Randy Cross or Dunderhead Dan Dierdorf. LOL

NYJ -3 when the real line is 3 1/2 is clearly +EV. What are the rest of the Hilton's lines?

[QUOTE=Old School;11235]NYJ -3 when the real line is 3 1/2 is clearly +EV. What are the rest of the Hilton's lines?[/QUOTE] the real line was -3 on Tuesday when the lines came out. it didnt reach -3.5 until yesterday aftenoon and there were still plenty of places dealing a juicy -3 do we really have to go through this again?

The "system" is clearly to bet stale lines as measured vs Pinny's or Cris's. A good and winning system. Betting stale and/or rogue lines (compared to Pinny or Cris), is +EV wherever you find them. As ties count +1/2, betting + or -3 when Cris's line is 2 1/2 (or +3 -120) or 3 1/2 (or -3 -120), is also +EV.

+ ev is not enough to win money in a contest Say the "real" line is 3, meaning that a dart thrower will go 45-45-10 in a hundred trials against a line of 3. But the contest line is 3.5. This means that you'll go 55-45 with the extra half point. So, if you have five of these EACH week, you'll end up with an average of .55 points per pick, or 46.75 points for the contest. Twentieth place in the Hilton will usually go to someone with around 50 points each year, so using this methos will cost you $1500. And the 3 is the most valuable point in the game. Getting a full point from, for instance, 1.5 to 2.5 doesn't give the value equal to the half point on/off the 3. Now contest results certainly inflate someone's win rate, probably by 2-4 %, but just using "shopping" methods won't win money in a contest.