Fezzik Hilton, Week 17

Ugh! Dude, you don't want be running out the clock when you're behind! You HAD to know Big E was going to take Buf, KC, and TB, right? Good job laying off KC, but instead of Buf/TB you should've gone with Cincy (to set up possible hedge) and some other not-so-obvious non-3 selection (Gmen come to mind). I can understand your not taking Cincy if you really thought BigE would also, but it wasn't an "obvious" play. Fortunately, you did pick him off with Ten, so if your Car/NE can push with his Arz/KC, you've got the right side of Ten/Sea for all the marbles (assuming you don't get run down from behind). So, even though I'm thoroughly unimpressed with your portfolio, you did put yourself in a good spot. Good luck! On second thought, it's actually OK to line up on a couple of plays if you're only 1/2 a game out, IF you think you can get on an opposite side of 1 of the others. Perhaps I judged you a little harshly...sorry bro!

Fezz if you where tied or in first would you have played the same strategy? If not what games would you have played. Thanks and good luck.

[QUOTE=mcowboy;13876]On second thought, it's actually OK to line up on a couple of plays if you're only 1/2 a game out, IF you think you can get on an opposite side of 1 of the others.[/QUOTE] After reconsideration, it comes down to the relative odds of being half a game ahead or half a game behind with one last game left. So I now agree with matching the Buf and TB picks. They are too strong to go against. Car was okay too because the lines hadn't been put up yet and Big E. was consequently unlikely to choose either side of that game. If Fezzik knew Big E. would choose KC then he should have chosen Denver. The problem is Fezzik doesn't want to get stuck with a 47% pick if Big E. isn't on the other side. So it comes down to the relative chance Big. E. will pick opposite. Fezzik did a nice job getting opposite Sea. Go Fezzik! Projected Prizes based on 400 entries 1st Place $240,000 (40% of all entry fees) 2nd Place $96,000 (16%) 3rd Place $48,000 (8%) 4th Place $30,000 (5%) 5th-10th Place $21,000 (3.5%) 11th-20th Place $6,000 (1%)

All the ego's here..situational awareness..who is in 2nd place by 1/2 game after 16 weeks?? I sit back and chuckle as i read how everybody else has a better idea, with judgment. Win or lose, Fezzik certainly deserves a little credit for going his way..who was at the top last year too?! I can't find the payout for the top places if someone would post it here. GL

Being only .5 behind the leader and, I think, also .5 ahead of third is what changes things. In this situation you can't give up too much EV in the picks simply to enhance the chance of being uncorrolated across the board (meaning, uncorrolated shit isn't good). As it stands now, a perfect record is a lock to win. Sweet. And he's still strong if the key game wins. How'd you like to be guaranteed of that position on week 17 when you put your money up?

Exactly! Down only by 1/2 with several close behind. I would not want to depend on a Seattle team that appears to have quit. Johnson should play the whole game. I like Trushal's card a lot also, I think Detroit is in a good spot vs Chicago coming off the big MN win. Ditto for Miami vs Pittsburg who was lucky to beat Balt. Cle, Cin, and KC also look solid IMO. Judged solely by Cris's current line, Fezzik has by far the best card IMO.

[QUOTE=Old School;13900]Exactly! Down only by 1/2 with several close behind. I would not want to depend on a Seattle team that appears to have quit. .[/QUOTE] Wasn't it just like 2 weeks ago you were going on and on about Seattle being awesome at home?

Please explain what is so good about Cinci this week that OS and Fezzik is on them? Isn't there like ZERO motivation including if they lose Jets come to them in first week of playoffs. What am I missing?

if the pats lose n cinci wins they get the 3 seed. however, if pats beat houston then jets line skyrockets as cinci not only has zero motivation but they'll prolly play jets the following week

[QUOTE=cowboys;13904]Wasn't it just like 2 weeks ago you were going on and on about Seattle being awesome at home?[/QUOTE] How has Seattle done the last two weeks? A lot can change in two weeks in the NFL, especially in the last weeks of the season. Line now Ten -6.