Fezzik Hilton, Week 17

OS your portfolio would have been 'better,' but with less chance to win......... The chance of randomly rolling a 3-1 is only 5/16. Even if you had the better of the lines, at best this upgrades to 6/16. And if you had 4 duplicates (could have happened) NOW it's down to 1/4! As it stands I think I have a 43% chance to overtake Big E. I would have taken that IN A SECOND this morning..... people don't realize how big a 1/2 game lead is.

Fezz did you like Carolina or where you guessing Big E would try and take NO?

[QUOTE=Fezzik;13928]The chance of randomly rolling a 3-1 is only 5/16. Even if you had the better of the lines, at best this upgrades to 6/16. And if you had 4 duplicates (could have happened) NOW it's down to 1/4! As it stands I think I have a 43% chance to overtake Big E. I would have taken that IN A SECOND this morning..... people don't realize how big a 1/2 game lead is.[/QUOTE] Exactly! And this is why it's good you did not pick KC!

[QUOTE=JohnnyGun;13927]RIGHT. Thanks man.[/QUOTE] Keep in mind they typically take these games off the board once the early games start. If you don't bet it before the early games start, chances are you will only have the option of what's posted after the early games play out.

agree 100% that you had to pass on one good play . it just happened to be that pass was on my personal favorite and what looks like the best eV play on the board as of now. i know the market dropped off an additional 10c-13c after the deadline but i personally thought kc was a must bubble at contest post time in your spot. the ten/sea setup is golden though and that may be decisive. i keep forgetting about that last 4 week tiebreaker rule. im not a big fan of that. truschel is up against it because of that for sure but i like that portfolio from a pure handicapping perspective.

Gotta go with your top plays! My strategy being in Fez's spot would have been to pick my top 5 plays. 1) You are only one half game out of first. 2) You stand to drop in the final standings as there are many others that could leap frog you. Best of luck Fez!

Lol Kim Lee wants to try to roll an 0-5 Flipper wants to finish 2nd.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;13958]Kim Lee wants to try to roll an 0-5 Flipper wants to finish 2nd.[/QUOTE] Finishing second would be great, but winning two straight years would be off the charts!!! Like Indianapolis winning the SB vs Indianapolis going 19-0! If Ind had gone 19-0, they would have been talked about FOREVER!

BTW, hope Brady plays the whole game. NE tends to play to win in these situations. #1's Ari -3 1/2 and sea +4 look very week right now. I still think 3-1-1 will win it.

With perfect info it's easy to play Monday(Sunday?) Morning QB. Like Anthony said, it's a delicate balance between sacrificing EV and getting uncorrelated. Plus, (and I wasn't aware of this) 2nd place pays significantly too. I think Fezzik handled it pretty well. Cards by 3, anyone?