Fezzik NFL season-long bets, status, current EV

Fezzik NFL season-long bets, status, current EV This is a totally academic exercise, but may be fun for those who bet Fezzik's season long picks. He is obviously doing quite well going into Week 3. Overall: +2.20u est., amount bet: 9.65u. I have estimated a win%, tie% for Fezzik's various season win totals and props going forward to compute an estimated EV: Fezzik NFL season bets DateBet Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/12 Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 1-1 61.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.28 9/5 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 2-0 71.0% 12.0% 1.00 0.68 8/29 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 0-2 63.0% 10.0% 2.00 0.78 8/24 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 0-2 61.0% 0.0% 3.00 0.66 7/28 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 6 43.0% 6.0% 1.25 -0.21 TOTAL 2.20

UCLA UN 6 looking very good ...........also I love futures.

Didn't forget the UCLA future (its the only CFB future), looks good, they are 1-2. @Texas this weekend, then WSU and @Cal. Should be 2-4 going into a bye week.

Ouch!! [QUOTE=ComptrBob;28528]Didn't forget the UCLA future (its the only CFB future), looks good, they are 1-2. @Texas this weekend, then WSU and @Cal. Should be 2-4 going into a bye week.[/QUOTE] I sure didn't have this one in the W column!!!

UCLA upset suddenly takes out the value of that RSW bet, now looks like 3-3 more likely going into the bye week. NFL Week 3 had Cin W, Dal W, Min W, and TB L all go against the RSW bet. New overall estimated EV = +1.50u [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-1 55.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.02 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 2-1 57.0% 13.0% 1.00 0.38 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-2 55.0% 10.0% 2.00 0.46 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 1-2 61.0% 0.0% 3.00 0.66 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 7 52.0% 5.0% 1.25 -0.02 TOTAL 1.50

Good work with the journaling of results Computer Bob...Did you play any of these yourself?

[QUOTE=johnnetto;28825]Good work with the journaling of results Computer Bob...Did you play any of these yourself?[/QUOTE] With the exception of the Redskins sack and the TB total, I played these for a "placeholder" amount, usually $10 to $20, to document the line and see how they are graded at the end of the season. I don't think its particularly fair for me to make larger, limit bets since I have a complimentary subscription to LVASports. I'd rather let paid subscribers have their shot first.

wasn't there a ray rice over TD bet too?

[QUOTE=parlayin;28898]wasn't there a ray rice over TD bet too?[/QUOTE] I took his posts in that thread to indicate a personal bet. He didn't use "official" or indicate a weight for the bets(three at separate prices). Maybe Fezz can jump in here and clarify.

ah okay, that makes sense. i just remembered seeing those plays mentioned but didnt pull up the actual thread. if you considered but decided not to count them, i'm sure your reasoning was valid. much different than if you overlooked them entirely. thanks!