Fezzik NFL season-long bets, status, current EV

Ray Rice and about 20 others only at Venetian, not posted as plays The Vikings will be 2-5 soon, they are virtually drawing dead to OVER 10........

Update NFL Week 4 had Cin L, Dal, Min,and TB all had byes, Redskins added only 1 sack. New overall estimated EV = +1.80u [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] [FONT="Courier New"]Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-2 59.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.20 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 2-1 57.0% 13.0% 1.00 0.38 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-2 55.0% 10.0% 2.00 0.46 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 1-2 61.0% 0.0% 3.00 0.66 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 8 58.0% 4.0% 1.25 0.11[/FONT] [B]TOTAL 1.80[/B]

How about UCLA?? Thanks for the work!

[QUOTE=bkeiller;29477]How about UCLA?? Thanks for the work![/QUOTE] UCLA at 3-2 will be a dog or near Pk in almost all their remaining 7 games. EV of UN 6 -175 is probably very close to zero. Remaining schedule: @Cal @Ore Az Ore St @Was @Az St USC

Update NFL Week 5 had Cin L, Dal L, Min L, and TB W, all good for the RSW bets, Redskins added 4 sacks against GB. New NFL overall estimated EV = +3.39u. College bet of UCLA UN 6 @ -175 is slightly +EV. [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-3 64.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.42 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 3-1 68.0% 12.0% 1.00 0.62 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-3 75.0% 9.0% 2.00 1.26 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 1-3 68.0% 0.0% 3.00 1.08 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 12 52.0% 8.0% 1.25 0.02 [B]TOTAL 3.39[/B]

NFL Week 6 had Cin bye, Dal L, Min W, and TB L, Redskins added 1 sack. New NFL overall estimated EV = +3.31u. College bet of UCLA UN 6 @ -175 is slightly +EV. [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-3 64.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.42 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 3-2 60.0% 12.0% 1.00 0.44 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-4 85.0% 7.0% 2.00 1.63 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 2-3 61.0% 0.0% 3.00 0.66 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 13 59.0% 7.0% 1.25 0.17 [B]TOTAL 3.31[/B]

NFL Week 7 had Cin L, Dal L, Min L, and TB W, Redskins added 4 sacks. New NFL overall estimated EV = +5.43u. UCLA lost, record 3-4, is +EV (UN 6 @ -175). [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-4 71.0% 0.0% 2.40 0.72 TB season wins OV 6 120 1 4-2 82.0% 12.0% 1.00 0.92 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-5 96.0% 3.0% 2.00 2.00 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 2-4 80.0% 0.0% 3.00 1.80 Redskins Sacks UN 40 -125 1 17 51.0% 7.0% 1.25 -0.01 [B]TOTAL 5.43[/B]

cowboy win total probably the best play this year of any win totals was Dallas Under. it won from Day 1 Nice work Fezz.

Week 8 Update NFL Week 8 had Cin L, Dal L, Min L, and TB W, Redskins added 1 sack. New NFL overall estimated EV = +7.35u. UCLA lost, record 3-5, est. EV = +0.60 (UN 6 @ -175, 2 wgt). [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B]][FONT="Courier New"] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-5 87.0% 0.0% 2.40 1.43 0.725 Bucs season wins .. OV 6 120 1 5-2 91.0% 8.0% 1.00 1.08 1.092 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-6 99.9% 0.1% 2.00 2.10 1.049 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 2-5 93.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.58 0.930 Redskins Sacks .... UN 40 -125 1 18 59.0% 7.0% 1.25 0.17 0.472[/FONT] [B]TOTAL 7.35[/B]

Week 9 update NFL Week 9 had Cin L, Dal L, Min W, and TB L, Redskins had a bye. NFL overall estimated EV = +7.47u. (Dallas UN has clinched) UCLA won, record 4-5, est. EV = +1.06 (UN 6 @ -175, 2 wgt). Note UCLA estimated ev last week was wrong, should have been +1.37. [B]Fezzik NFL season bets Team O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] Bengals season wins UN 8.5 -120 2 2-6 95.0% 0.0% 2.40 1.78 Bucs season wins .. OV 6 120 1 5-3 87.0% 11.0% 1.00 1.02 Cowboys season wins UN 10 105 2 1-7 100.0% 0.0% 2.00 2.10 Vikings season wins UN 9.5 100 3 3-5 90.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.40 Redskins Sacks …. UN 40 -125 1 18 59.0% 7.0% 1.25 0.17 [B]TOTAL 7.47[/B]