Fezzik Novermber 13 Thread Picks

[QUOTE=Coolmil;48202]At least you are man enough to admit it. half the battle. Remember handicapers are just as good as their last pick. Hang in there.:cool:[/QUOTE] Agree completely. There is no magic pill that so many want. I like Sean's comment too, no disrespect intended, but I liked my Hou -3 a whole lot better when I saw Fezz on TB +4. However, I wouldn't go as far as to just bet the other side, this cool spell is just that; let's not forget the end of the NBA. Also wouldn't mind a little more instruction and less straight picks. Tell me why...like when you told us about Kent St (I believe) a few weeks back. "Mother of all good spots..." and you told us why. Then I can look for similar situations and apply the same logic. I would really like more discussion of SOME of your techniques to finding good bets. Thanks Nipsy

I understand the Redskin, Rams and ovr Denver Bet but I think what valueinvestor was asking is what made you like the Tampa bet.... I am not piling on after the fact but what did u see in Tampa... No running game, 29th ranked D vs the run, facing the number 1 or 2 defense in football with the number one running game... or was it just the fact that it went over the 3 so u saw some value.... I have been following you for around 10 yrs and I think you are the best, Im just trying to understand ?

[QUOTE=pimpdaddy;48208]I understand the Redskin, Rams and ovr Denver Bet but I think what valueinvestor was asking is what made you like the Tampa bet.... I am not piling on after the fact but what did u see in Tampa... No running game, 29th ranked D vs the run, facing the number 1 or 2 defense in football with the number one running game... or was it just the fact that it went over the 3 so u saw some value.... I have been following you for around 10 yrs and I think you are the best, Im just trying to understand ?[/QUOTE] Would love to hear Fezzs thought on this also but I sure am scared that the answer would be Hou -3 great bet TB +4 great bet. And truly not trying to be a wise ass just trying to understand.

If you operate under the premise that lines are hammered into place and that you can't "pick winners," you will get creamed when games don't middle.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;48210]Would love to hear Fezzs thought on this also but I sure am scared that the answer would be Hou -3 great bet TB +4 great bet. And truly not trying to be a wise ass just trying to understand.[/QUOTE] sure enough, u know this place (like me) far too well..... as he said earlier in this same thread: "I liked Hou-3, I liked TB +4." i think sometimes fez forgets that we are sports bettors following his tout plays. this is not some sort of elaborate portfolio management where he's placing our bets and can dabble in all these things. If he really likes Hou-3 and TB+4.... i think it's safe to say he doesn't have a strong opiniion on the game and shouldn't be giving that out either side to us.

I think IceTea can be overly hard on the Fez at times - However, cant argue with this one - [QUOTE]If he really likes Hou-3 and TB+4.... i think it's safe to say he doesn't have a strong opiniion on the game and shouldn't be giving that out either side to us. [/QUOTE] ...or at least be upfront about this perspective when you release the play

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;48212]If you operate under the premise that lines are hammered into place and that you can't "pick winners," you will get creamed when games don't middle.[/QUOTE] well not really - you wont get creamed if you have access to -105 's this year though the amount of games that have fallen in and around the number have been pretty low - only in the last week or so it has got better two this last week lol kent state and nevada gm last week was a start for me - cannot get on every gm move though.......

[QUOTE=costar;48241]well not really - you wont get creamed if you have access to -105 's this year though the amount of games that have fallen in and around the number have been pretty low - only in the last week or so it has got better two this last week lol kent state and nevada gm last week was a start for me - cannot get on every gm move though.......[/QUOTE] If you are a US citizen where do you get access to -105's?? Thanks.

I think Fezz is a 52-53% handicapper in a slump. Just like Bob isnt 57% anymore, Fezz isnt 55% anymore. That said, he's damn good at predicting which way the line will move. Given the slump Im happily letting the line move and betting the other side. Usually I bet Fezz's pick and then more on the other side once it moves. Im sure Fezz will bounce back and with any luck I'll change my betting as it happens. I know there is no math behind streaks, but they seem to happen and happen and happen... I seen enough of them to just run with them.

sorry Bkeiller -I am located in an area were i have access to lots of outs - credit for most part