looking at my screen pin has +04 w/ 3.5 now so $$$ is down already and lines everwher have moved but i still see jazz w/ 4.... bodog w/ 4 .... SIA w 4 to give u 3 that are surprisingly still at 4 whilemost disappeared last night in town
[QUOTE=IceTea;50011]you asked in vegas? and I said all over - most everwhere you looked: hilton... furhman's caesars.... wynn, stations and dwn at south point. i'd call out fez but 4 was available from wht i saw....[/QUOTE]
Ok thx bud....
In Vegas, the screen was PAINTED 4........... it was extremely hard just to find a 3.5 2 days ago!
Good news, the BEST BET on this game IS out there offshore.
3q 49ers +.5 -140 (Greek -135) . 3 weight. OFF THE CHARTS GREAT BET!!
[QUOTE=Superskrub;50025]Could you explain, why 3q at this line is great, while 1q at same line is not that great?[/QUOTE]
i would think that no always takes the ball to start the game, whereas sf may want to start their defense on the field and get the ball to start the third q. haven't looked into it, just a hunch.
In their last 4 games NO has outscored their opponents in the 3rd qtr 52-10 (14-0, 10-3, 14-0, 14-7) so I was curious about the thinking here as well. The 5th game though was on the road to Tenn and they lost the 3rd 7-3.
4 hours later Fezzik calls it a great bet and I just walk up and bet it at 5 Dimes. Come on if you're paying for this information I shouldn't be able to do this. I've been up since 730 this morning running around chasing bball bets I shouldn't get this type of bonus. Carib is -135 on it and if Greek still is I don't understand. These bets don't take that much to move the line is my experience.
Now regarding the bet I do recall and someone will remember and I won't lie it was a sharp move on this same type of situation and I can't recall who it was. I want to say Pitt and Arizona and the expectation was that Az would want the ball and Pitt would want Ariz to have the ball first. I FELT that Arizona wouldn't want that and I know ended up being correct on some game in this and I think this was it.
The reasoning is in such a big game actually you want to show the confidence in the group that isn't recognized as much and AZ wanted to show confidence that they can win their D and they put them out first I think.
I could absolutely see in a big game like this that NO might want to show confidence in their D and let SF have the ball first. I would have less belief that SF would take the ball first but you never know. I really believe that basic strategy is altered because of the emotional advantage that might be gained.
However, any strategy that NO does that doesn't involve Brees getting as many touches as he can might be flawed so Payton probably would take the ball first and then onside kick in the 2nd half!!! And for the same reason SF might take the ball first so Brees doesn't get first possession.
figuring out the coin toss rationale is hard enough. even if u are right, does not mean u win the bet. has to be other reasons for a bet like this to be a "OFF THE CHARTS GREAT BET!! "
