N.o. -3 -125 Now I'm not a professional but I have watched a lot of dumb bets by professionals this year and I personaly think S.F. +3 is another. IMHO. They will be out coached and out Quarterbacked. That is enough for me. :cool:
It probably is off the charts great although I'm happy to knock as I did in my post before.
If there is any bias to NO getting the ball first I would hope---and I think it is safe----that Fez has what the fair line would be without that bias. I can only presume that the line doesn't reflect the expectation that SF gets the ball 1st in the 3rd quarter to the extent he thinks they will get it.
I will only say this as a helpful comment but when Fezzik says it is "OFF THE CHARTS GREAT BET" one viewpoint is that it is hyperbole. But I think the real misunderstanding is that and perhaps I'm out of line but I think what he's saying is that he's looking at something that is offered as if it were a 57% event and his pricing might indicate it is a 63%. For a professional bettor this is "OFF THE CHARTS GOOD".
It is not a guaranteed winner. It is not a 90% winner. Or 80% winner. And probably not even 70% winner. I know from your posts that you know what is going on. Yes, the writing style may be hyperbole and I think you may get caught up in his style. But I don't think it is just hype. A 5% advantage is huge out here. 4% would be great.
Is his pricing correct? I don't know. Sure, when the husband is murdered I would interview the wife first and when a guy is down 80 units sure I can understand some apprehension that the pricing isn't right. He's bound to give something that wins.
I'm down 80 units this year, with some suspect bets, for sure, but bottom line I HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY UNLUCKY......
When you have a year like mine.......you don't move lines with recommendations.
Instead of posting how unlucky you have been losing 80 units, I thought you'd at least post a reason why you like this 3rd quarter bet.
One of the main issues i have w/ this site from day 1. you have clients questioning logic, looking for insight.... instead of giving a simple answer, you comment on your bad luck. bad form IMO
It's a tough thing to balance, but certain things are better not discussed. He's putting the bet out there to take if you believe in it, and of course there are clues to what it's about given the nature of it.
[QUOTE=Fezzik;49984]110 49ers +4 3 weight
The bettors are gonna bet 111 Den 13.5, will close 12.5, but I cannot touch em without getting 14
114 BALT -7-120 3 weight (fine to lay -7.5, but -7-120 is better (Harrahs, Stn, etc). Also -7.5 EV is on the Vegas screen, that is even better.
The square sharps will bet the gmen down to 7, we will figure out what to do after that happens.....[/QUOTE]
One of my spots just moved NE to 14. A play there??
[QUOTE=bigrobbie;50058]Denver now +14. Is there a play here, or are you waiting for 14.5?[/QUOTE]
Did you not read my post just 2 below this or were you reiterating??
