Fezzik Preseason Week3

Why are Thursday Night Football games lower scoring? Is it because offenses have less time to prepare a gameplan? In any case, I'd think the reason would be the same here. (But yet you'd think less important because the games don't count. So perhaps the reason TNF games are lower scoring is something else.) [QUOTE=Fezzik;53293]We saw the lines inflate as expected, now it's time to start choosing which middles to shoot for, and which overs we can roll the dice with. I always prefer 'overs' later in the week in preseason, not sure I can explain why, but for example, Sunday and Monday games are much higher scoring in presason. The market has reacted and bet 'over' just like I knew they would. Let's just go for our middles on Thursday. 252 GB/Cin UN 45.5 2 weight (no number is 'dead' in preseason, but 46 is a number that is darn hard to land on. 254 (we already played back UN 41.5) 256 Az/Ten UN 42.5 2 weight. Going to be rooting for games to land '41' this week no doubt......[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=IceTea;53294]and that was before all of these buy backs.... i know there's no chance in hell i can follow all these plays.... got not much of anything left to work with - how many units are we at now bob? Got to be north of 175 "out there"[/QUOTE] Close, overall total pending is 173.65u plus 4.4 I just saw with the latest buybacks. Breakdown of bets pending: NFL Week 1: 22 bets for 65.75u NFLX Week 3: 22 bets for 43.00u NFL RSW: 17 bets (incl 1 prop) for 51.80u CFB RSW: 4 bets (incl 1 mixed) for 13.10u

A note on bet sizing. You should have a set bankroll, representing the maximum you would be willing to lose. You then should wager 1% per unit as a recommeneded bet size. So......all will ask, "HOW THE H()$*%($%* can I have 200% of bankroll at risk??!" The reason is that we have so many middles in play that the 'real' risk is WAY less than that of actually wagering 200 units. So....while the money outlay is great, the actual risk is not, given I'm playing so aggressively back. I think EVERY NFL future except the Oak UN 7 has moved in our favor. Many bets have moved 50 cents. We could just scalp away on all these bets tieing up $$$, and locking in profits. I'm less inclined to do so on the futures, since it DOES tie up the money for so long........and I'm confident the overall portfolio will turn a solid profit. Hope that helps clarify things........ Also, as I indicated if you miss bets at buy prices, simply pass on them. I'm sure the vast majority have WAY less than the suggested bets made on this board, and that's aok, if you miss a bet, it moves, just move on. I will do my bets to indicatate when it's fine to play at a worse number........

Add 258 Philly Clev UN 38-115 1 weight (ok to play uN 37.5)

Looks like Rivers and some friends will miss vs the Vikings, -1 looking great.

Yup, got the memo late, but the markets are slow to react IMO 264 UNDER 42 (Fine to play UN 41.5) 3 weight. This one is SURE to crash early in the AM on the news........our over is doomed IMO.....

ADD 266 Chic/NGY UN 41 2 weight. ADD 270 indy/Wash UN 43 2 weight Disappointed at the skinny/bad middles. Quite a few games that 'under' makes sense at the inflated totals......

FEZZ ... At some point can you address "buying points" ... 1/2 or one. In general, it seems to be an advantage for the house, but could be valuable if you are starting with reduced juice, say -107 or better vs. -110 and can get a half point, say 37 to 37' for .10 to -.13 cents. Thoughts anyone?

[url]https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/[/url] should help for the regular season. Don't know how useful it is for the preseason. Also, not sure whether they've made adjustments for the new overtime rules in the NFL.

The key numbers aren't as key preseason, likely shade 2 cents off the value of 'good' numbers, add 2 cents to value of bad ones