[QUOTE=sean1;47066]Computerbob, out of curiosity, what is the percent chance of a 54% capper going 58-69 over 117 bets?
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My betting partner and I made a staking calculator, to make a better staking plan and stop loss plan, based on expected profits.
With these premises:
Minimum line range -125
Maximum line range +100
% stake pr bet 2,00% (how much you of your bankroll want to win pr. bet - with a line of -110 you actually risk 2,2% of your bankroll)
Expected profit margin 3,00% (a 54% capper should have a ROI of about 3%)
1000 calculations of 100 bets series looks like this:
Min ROI -28,1% (worst ROI of 1000 calculations after 100 bets)
Max ROI 30,9% (best ROI of 1000 calculations after 100 bets)
Avg ROI 2,6% (staking is based on Kelly, so actually we bet af little more every time we win and a little time every time you loose. You should never do this, but upgrade or downgrade you staking in steps)
Min ROC -62,8% (ROC is a little more than double ROI, as staking is around 2,2% of bankroll pr. bet)
Max ROC 69,1%(worst ROC of 1000 calculations after 100 bets)
Avg ROC 5,9% (best ROC of 1000 calculations after 100 bets)
Max loss -68% (worst bankroll loss inside 100 bets - this one is pretty close to worst ROC)
Avg max loss -13% (average loss inside 100 bets)
Count: Wins 601, loss 399 (how many times out of 100 bets you end up in plus versus minus
Max lost bets 14 (worst number of bets lost in a row)
Its a swingy business - more than most people ever would think :-)
