Fezzik's RSW selections

Fezzik's RSW selections I'll start tracking the regular season win selections with some estimated Win/Tie probabilities to get a rough idea of current EV. I'll include the college here for convenience's sake. As Fezzik noted, since the Charger vs Falcons bet was only available at one shop, it was made a 0 wgt bet. [B]Summary EV: NFL: +1.84u, CFB: + 2.47u[/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt Cur W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 3-1 41.0% 13.0% 1.10 -0.06 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 3-2 77.0% 12.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 3-1 34.0% 0.0% 1.20 -0.38 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 1-3 78.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.62 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 0-4 87.0% 0.0% 1.20 0.89 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 4-0 89.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.17 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 2-2 51.0% 0.0% 4.35 0.09 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 2-2 37.0% 11.0% 3.20 -0.48 TOTAL 1.84 Fezzik CFB season bets 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 5-0 26.0% 0.0% 3.20 -1.54 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 0-4 94.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.29 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 5-0 73.0% 14.0% 2.50 1.50 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 3-1 50.0% 16.0% 1.35 0.22 TOTAL 2.47

Almost certain wins: Dolphins UN, Lions OV, Ore St UN, Ala OV Almost certain losses: 49ers UN, LSU UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +0.70u, CFB: + 1.60u[/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 4-2 49.0% 13.0% 1.10 0.12 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-4 71.0% 9.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 5-1 6.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.06 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 3-3 51.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.02 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 0-6 98.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.15 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 5-2 85.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.05 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 3-3 55.0% 0.0% 4.35 0.44 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 4-3 29.0% 10.0% 3.20 -1.02 TOTAL 0.70 Fezzik CFB season bets 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 8-0 3.0% 0.0% 3.20 -3.01 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 2-5 96.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.39 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 8-0 89.0% 11.0% 2.50 2.23 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 5-2 43.0% 13.0% 1.35 -0.01 TOTAL 1.60

I had missed one RSW selection in the list above, Chargers OV 10, that I'm including here. Likely wins: Dolphins UN, Lions OV, Ore St UN, Ala OV Likely losses: 49ers UN, LSU UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: -2.49u, CFB: + 1.54u[/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-2 31.0% 15.0% 1.10 -0.25 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-5 42.0% 19.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 7-1 0.1% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 4-4 45.0% 0.0% 1.10 -0.11 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 1-7 97.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.13 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 6-2 95.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.35 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 4-4 27.0% 8.0% 3.00 -1.14 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 3-5 32.0% 0.0% 4.35 -1.57 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 4-4 32.0% 14.0% 3.20 -0.70 TOTAL -2.49 Fezzik CFB season bets 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 9-0 0.1% 0.0% 3.20 -3.19 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 2-7 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.60 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 8-1 87.0% 11.0% 2.50 2.13 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 6-3 44.0% 13.0% 1.35 0.01 TOTAL 1.54

College RSW bets have been decided. Likely wins: Dolphins UN, Chiefs UN, Lions OV Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV Wins: Ore St UN, Iowa UN, Ala OV Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV, LSU UN [B] Summary EV: NFL: -6.69u, CFB: + 3.25u[/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets[/B] Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-5 59.0% 12.0% 1.10 0.33 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-7 4.0% 10.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 9-2 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 4-7 76.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.57 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 3-8 99.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.18 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 7-4 99.1% 0.0% 1.50 1.47 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 4-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-7 17.0% 0.0% 4.35 -2.87 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-4 0.0% 1.0% 3.20 -3.17 TOTAL -6.69 [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 3.20 -3.20 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 3-9 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.60 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 11-1 100.0% 0.0% 2.50 2.50 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.35 1.35 TOTAL 3.25

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;48807]College RSW bets have been decided. Likely wins: Dolphins UN, Chiefs UN, Lions OV Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV Wins: Ore St UN, Iowa UN, Ala OV Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV, LSU UN [B] Summary EV: NFL: -6.69u, CFB: + 3.25u[/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets[/B] Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-5 59.0% 12.0% 1.10 0.33 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-7 4.0% 10.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 9-2 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 4-7 76.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.57 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 3-8 99.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.18 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 7-4 99.1% 0.0% 1.50 1.47 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 4-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-7 17.0% 0.0% 4.35 -2.87 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-4 0.0% 1.0% 3.20 -3.17 TOTAL -6.69 [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 3.20 -3.20 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 3-9 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.60 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 11-1 100.0% 0.0% 2.50 2.50 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.35 1.35 TOTAL 3.25[/QUOTE] Thanks for this. One dumb question. If Oreg St, Ala and Iowa were favorites then shouldn't the wins have been 2,2 and 1 not 2.6, 2.5 and 1.35??

[QUOTE=bkeiller;48819]Thanks for this. One dumb question. If Oreg St, Ala and Iowa were favorites then shouldn't the wins have been 2,2 and 1 not 2.6, 2.5 and 1.35??[/QUOTE] OMG, of course you're right. My equation for the EV was messed up. Thanks so much for pointing that out. Corrected post below. [B]Summary EV: NFL: -7.75u, CFB: +1.80u[/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets[/B] Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-5 59.0% 12.0% 1.10 0.27 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-7 4.0% 10.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 9-2 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 4-7 76.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.50 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 3-8 99.0% 0.0% 1.20 0.98 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 7-4 99.1% 0.0% 1.50 0.98 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 4-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-7 17.0% 0.0% 4.35 -3.10 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-4 0.0% 1.0% 3.20 -3.17 TOTAL -7.75 [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 3.20 -3.20 8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 3-9 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.00 7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 11-1 100.0% 0.0% 2.50 2.00 7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.35 1.00 TOTAL 1.80

Likely wins: Giants UN, Dolphins UN, Chiefs UN, Lions OV Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV Wins: None Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV [B]Summary EV: NFL: -7.84u, CFB: 3-1, +1.80u[/B] [B]Fezzik NFL season bets[/B] Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-6 75.0% 12.0% 1.10 0.61 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 5-7 8.0% 20.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 5-7 86.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.71 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 4-8 98.0% 0.0% 1.20 0.96 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 7-5 98.1% 0.0% 1.50 0.95 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 5-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-8 8.0% 0.0% 4.35 -3.76 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-5 0.0% 3.0% 3.20 -3.10 TOTAL -7.84

Likely wins: Giants UN, Chiefs UN Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV, Chargers +1 vs Falcons Wins: Lions OV, Dolphins UN Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV [B] Summary EV: NFL: 2-2, -7.88u, CFB: 3-1, +1.80u[/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 7-6 70.0% 22.0% 1.10 0.61 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 6-8 10.0% 30.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 10-3 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 5-8 98.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.96 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 4-9 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 8-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.00 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 6-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-9 1.5% 0.0% 4.35 -4.24 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-6 0.0% 6.0% 3.20 -3.01 TOTAL -7.88

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;49146]Likely wins: Giants UN, Chiefs UN Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV, Chargers +1 vs Falcons Wins: Lions OV, Dolphins UN Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV [B] Summary EV: NFL: 2-2, -7.88u, CFB: 3-1, +1.80u[/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 7-6 70.0% 22.0% 1.10 0.61 8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 6-8 10.0% 30.0% 0.00 0.00 8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 10-3 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20 8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 5-8 98.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.96 8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 4-9 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00 8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 8-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.00 8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 6-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-9 1.5% 0.0% 4.35 -4.24 8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-6 0.0% 6.0% 3.20 -3.01 TOTAL -7.88[/QUOTE] Thanks again. I would though disagree with the Giants Under as a likely win. They are favored by 7 this week, will likely be Pick or so against the Jets and probably 3 or 4 at home against the Boys.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;49148]Thanks again. I would though disagree with the Giants Under as a likely win. They are favored by 7 this week, will likely be Pick or so against the Jets and probably 3 or 4 at home against the Boys.[/QUOTE] The Giants UN 9 can't lose unless the Giants go 3-0 so certainly the bet as it stands is +EV, more likely to cash than not. I would guess the Jets line would be more like Jets -2.5 even though it is the same venue for both teams. Coolstandings has the Giants with an Expected win total of 8.5 which I think is a little low since they will be favored in two out of the three games remaining. I usually just give an off-the-cuff estimate based on the coolstandings number. So looking at the Giants UN 9 bet closer, I would change the 70/22 % W/T probablity to 50/30 % giving about a 20% chance of losing it.