Fezzik's RSW selections for 2012/13 seasom

Fezzik's RSW selections for 2012/13 seasom I'll start tracking the regular season win selections with some [B]estimated[/B] Win/Tie probabilities to get a rough idea of current EV. I'll include the college here for convenience's sake. This may be of help to those who have bet many of these suggestions. If you notice any significant errors, please post. Doesn't yet include Packers win from Week 2. [B]Summary EV: NFL: -1.92u, CFB: -0.08u[/B] [B]Fezzik NFL season bets[/B] Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Amt Bet EV 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 1-0 43.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.39 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 1-0 38.0% 12.0% 3.30 -0.51 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 0-1 58.0% 0.0% 2.20 0.24 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 0-1 52.0% 0.0% 2.60 -0.21 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 0-1 44.0% 12.0% 4.80 -0.35 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 1-0 54.0% 13.0% 3.90 0.33 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 2-2 47.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.05 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 0-1 42.0% 12.0% 1.15 -0.11 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 1-0 41.0% 15.0% 1.20 -0.12 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 1-0 41.0% 14.0% 4.40 -0.34 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 0-1 51.0% 16.0% 1.20 0.11 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 1-0 50.0% 15.0% 3.75 0.19 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 0-1 42.0% 16.0% 2.50 -0.21 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 1-0 38.0% 14.0% 5.50 -0.74 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 0-1 46.0% 16.0% 5.00 0.40 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 1-0 53.0% 10.0% 3.45 0.31 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 1-0 63.0% 0.0% 3.00 0.15 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 0-1 51.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.21 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 0-1 52.0% 0.0% 4.20 -0.46 7/26 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 2 1-0 41.0% 14.0% 2.40 -0.26 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 0-1 41.0% 12.0% 2.00 -0.12 TOTAL -1.92 1/3/2013 Pay date 53 Payout -60.18 Amt bet Amt Bet 62.10 XIRR -6.9% [B]Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 0-1 52.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.25 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 1-0 55.0% 14.0% 3.70 -0.05 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 1-1 65.0% 0.0% 5.40 0.06 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 2-0 61.0% 0.0% 4.00 -0.34 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 0-2 62.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -0.08 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -15.22 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -1.6% Tot Bet 77.40

Comp Bob, we got flat on Tampa, in page 3 of my posted picks I said "ADD 1 unit TB OV 6-120" that offset my prior UNder 6.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;53795]Comp Bob, we got flat on Tampa, in page 3 of my posted picks I said "ADD 1 unit TB OV 6-120" that offset my prior UNder 6.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the correction, I must have read right past both the 2 posts. So as I understand it, I should add and entry for 7/26 with a 2 wgt play on TB OV 6 -120?

Update thru NFL Week 4: [B]Summary EV: NFL: -1.38u, CFB: -2.48u[/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 2-2 43.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.39 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 2-2 50.0% 12.0% 3.30 0.25 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 1-3 56.0% 0.0% 2.20 0.15 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 2-2 55.0% 0.0% 2.60 -0.07 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 1-2 47.0% 12.0% 4.80 -0.09 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-0 27.0% 13.0% 3.90 -1.53 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 8-8 43.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.13 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 0-4 28.0% 12.0% 1.15 -0.41 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 3-1 36.0% 15.0% 1.20 -0.23 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 1-3 55.0% 14.0% 4.40 0.84 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 1-3 38.0% 14.0% 2.40 -0.39 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 2-2 52.0% 16.0% 1.20 0.14 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 3-1 57.0% 15.0% 3.75 0.66 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-3 42.0% 16.0% 2.50 -0.21 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 3-1 37.0% 14.0% 5.50 -0.85 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 3-1 34.0% 16.0% 5.00 -0.80 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 3-1 48.0% 10.0% 3.45 -0.01 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 0-4 79.0% 8.0% 3.00 1.19 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 1-3 56.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.42 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 2-2 55.0% 0.0% 4.20 -0.24 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 1-3 44.0% 14.0% 1.20 -0.06 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 2-2 54.0% 12.0% 2.00 0.40 TOTAL -1.38 1/3/2013 Pay date 54 Payout -61.92 Amt bet Amt Bet 63.30 XIRR -4.9% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 3-1 46.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.00 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 3-2 54.0% 14.0% 3.70 -0.10 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 3-1 58.0% 0.0% 5.40 -0.53 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 4-0 36.0% 0.0% 4.00 -1.84 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 1-4 63.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -2.48 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -12.82 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -42.7% Tot Bet 78.60

Note: I will track future bets (e.g. NE to win AFC, SF to win NFC, etc) in a different thread as we get closer to the end of the season. Update thru NFL Week 6 (Thanks to forum member kluggie for notifying me of my omission of an additional Raiders under bet): [B]Summary EV: NFL: +1.27u, CFB: -4.62u[/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-3 54.0% 0.0% 2.20 0.07 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 3-3 54.0% 12.0% 3.30 0.50 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-3 43.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.39 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 4-2 68.0% 0.0% 2.60 0.53 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 2-3 53.0% 12.0% 4.80 0.44 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-2 35.0% 13.0% 3.90 -0.98 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 16-14 42.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.16 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 1-5 24.0% 12.0% 1.15 -0.50 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 3-3 36.0% 15.0% 1.20 -0.23 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 2-3 51.0% 14.0% 4.40 0.50 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 2-3 43.0% 14.0% 2.40 -0.17 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 3-3 57.0% 16.0% 1.20 0.25 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 4-1 61.0% 15.0% 3.75 0.93 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-4 42.0% 16.0% 2.50 -0.21 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 4-2 40.0% 14.0% 5.50 -0.53 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 3-3 44.0% 16.0% 5.00 0.20 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 5-1 33.0% 10.0% 3.45 -0.98 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 1-4 60.0% 12.0% 2.40 0.53 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 1-4 75.0% 8.0% 3.00 0.99 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 1-4 60.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.58 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 3-3 56.0% 0.0% 4.20 -0.17 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 2-3 37.0% 14.0% 1.20 -0.22 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-3 51.0% 12.0% 2.00 0.28 TOTAL 1.27 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -66.97 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 4.39% [B]Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 5-1 8.0% 12.0% 2.20 -1.60 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 5-3 63.0% 14.0% 3.70 0.41 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 3-3 59.0% 0.0% 5.40 -0.44 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 6-0 17.0% 0.0% 4.00 -2.98 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 1-6 92.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -4.62 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -10.69 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -67.82% Tot Bet 81.00

I think you misspelled +20 units

CAn't speak for Bob's Projection methods, but I fully expect to win 20 units, (of course, Atl division, Chic division, etc) .....Det UN 9 Bob has +.5 units, I've already circled it as a winner +4, etc. ......Cin is 3-3, off their creampuff schedule, now they get the real teams............etc.

At Week 6, some projections are firming up and some have lots of uncertainty. As the season progresses, the EV prediction model goes from a spread out prob. distribution to a "bang-bang" control (i.e. prob win = either 0 or 1). I try to be neither optimistic or pessimistic on these projections and not over-react to a potentially easy schedule. Of course, I've also indicated this EV analysis doesn't include division, conf and superbowl future bets.

Nice thing is that it doesn't matter, it will all resolve in next 2 months. Wash UN 7.5 wins was never - units, today it's a circled 3 units winner, etc. (they would need to go 5-0 in the Pac10).

Looks like Washington Huskies could lose next week to Oregon St. ... ending their chances. WASHINGTON (AT) (SUR: 3-3 PSR: 3-3 O-U: 1-4) S.01* S. DIEGO ST. L -15' 21-12 u56' S.08* Lsu L+23' 3-41 u53 S.15 PORT. ST. W-32' 52-13 S.27* STANFORD W +6' 17-13 u48 O.06* Oregon L+24' 21-52 o63 O.13 S. CALIF. W+13' 14-24 u54' O.20* Arizona L +6' 17-52 o61 [B][I]O.27 OREGON ST.[/I][/B] N.02* California N.10 UTAH N.17 Colorado N.23 Wash. St.